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Solflekkperiode 25 har startet
Klimanytt nr. 288. Redaktør: Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Forfattet av Jan-Erik Solheim.
Solforskere fra NASA kunngjorde på en pressekonferanse 15. september at solflekkperiode 25 har startet. Offisiell startmåned er desember 2019. Det betyr at solflekkperiode 24 ble nøyaktig 11 år. Den hadde middels lengde men ble den svakeste på 100 år (se også Klimanytt 57).
Flekker på solen er observert med teleskop fra 1610, men det var først etter daglige studier i nesten 40 år at en tysk apoteker ved navn Heinrich Schwabe i 1843 skrev at flekker på solen varier med en periode på omkring 10 år. Solflekkperioden har siden 1610 variert mellom 8 og 15 år, med en middelverdi på 11,06 år. Man regner med god oversikt over solflekkperiodene siden 1755. Perioden som startet da ble periode nr. 1.
Solflekkperiode 24 ble den svakeste på 100 år, og den 4. svakeste siden 1755. Den hadde maksimum i april 2014 med 114 solflekker, mens maksimum i gjennomsnitt er på 179 flekker. Bildet ovenfor viser solen ved maksimum i april 2014 sammenlignet med minimum i desember 2019. Det vi ser med vårt øye er mørke flekker fra områder med lavere temperatur. Men ser vi på sola med kamera som kan se ultrafiolett eller tar røntgenbilder, ser vi kraftige eksplosjoner på solskiven og ved randen kan vi se at materie blir kastet opp i magnetiske buer. Noen ganger så kraftig at bobler av ioniserte gasser blir kastet ut fra sola – og hvis retningen er riktig kan de treffe jorda. At en gass er ionisert betyr at den har elektriske ladninger. En vind fra sola med elektrisk ladete partikler passerer hele tiden jorda, men vinden blir sterkere og kan gi elektriske stormer når solaktiviteten stiger. Det gir oss kraftig nordlys, men kan også bety trøbbel for satellitter og elektriske ledningsnett på jorda.
NASA har varslet at solflekkperiode 25 vil bli omtrent som 24 i styrke, med et maksimum på 115 solflekker i 2025. Mest nordlys opptrer gjerne tre år etter maksimum.
Figuren her viser et gjennomsnitt av antall solflekker i 11-års perioder. Den heltrukne kurven er basert på tellinger av flekker og grupper av flekker. Den stiplete er basert kun på grupper av flekker. Det var det eneste en kunne se på 1600-tallet med små og dårlige teleskop. På kurven ser vi tre dype minima. Maunder minimum på 1600-tallet, Dalton minimum 1800-1820 og et ikke så dypt – men lengre minimum fra 1870 til 1930. Vi aner konturene av et nytt dypt minimum etter år 2000. Solflekkperiode 24 hadde i gjennomsnitt 50 solflekker, noe som svarer til antallet ved begynnelsen av Dalton minimum. NASA mener at vi vil ha noen svake solflekkperioder i tiden fremover, men ikke så svake som under Maunder minimum. Andre solforskere mener vi kan få et nytt Maunder minimum omkring 2040.
Klimamessig har de de dype og lange solflekkminima falt sammen med perioder med lavere temperatur. En serie med dype og lange minima startet på 1400-tallet og perioden fram til 1850-1900 kalles Den lille Istid (se Klimanytt 266). Vinterisen i Nord-Atlanteren strakte seg nesten ned til Skottland og elver i Tyskland og Themsen frøs om vinteren. Deretter har solaktiviteten og jordas temperatur steget og isen i Arktis har krympet.
Det blir spennende om vi får en overgang til et kaldere klima som følge av lav solaktivitet i dette århundre.
Mer om solas periodiske variasjoner og Den lille istid i Klimarealistenes hefte «Naturen styrer klima», artikkel 21, side 48-49.
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