by
Satellittmåling viser liten økt drivhuseffekt
- mai 15, 2021
- 18:54
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Atmosfærefysikk, CO2-utslipp
Klimanytt nr. 297. Redaktør: Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Forfattet av Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Satellittobservasjoner og beregninger av strålingseffekten av økte drivhusgasser viser liten økning, som utelukkende har positive virkninger. Da er det ikke klimakrise, men klimaforbedring.
I 200 år har laboratorieeksperimenter vist at gasser kan oppvarmes av stråling. I 160 år har vi visst at vanndamp er en meget sterk drivhusgass, CO2 bidrar litt, mens ozon, metan og lystgass i enda mindre grad bidrar til oppvarming (J. Tyndall 1859, KN 270). Teorien var velutviklet i midten av 1930-årene, de ledende meteorologer mente dette fra 1950-tallet (KN 194), og satellittmålinger og tilhørende beregninger viste dette fra 1970-årene (se nedenfor).
For hvert nytt molekyl som tilføres atmosfæren blir molekyleffekten mindre (logaritmisk utvikling). Mens de første 20 ppm (part per million) gir ca. 1.7 C vil 20 ppm på dagens nivå bare gi ca. 0.06 C. Så atmosfæren er nå tilnærmet mettet, som en våt svamp som kan ta opp bare litt mer damp. Studentene lærer det tidlig i kurset, alle innen feltet vet det, og det er omtalt langt inne i fagdelene av IPCC-rapportene. Men det står ikke i sammendragene og formidles ikke i medier og mange fagartikler. For de som gjør det betegnes fornektere.
Heller ikke Arrhenius tidligere beregninger eller datamaskinene med sine simuleringsmodeller fra 1970-80-årene endret den rådende vitenskapelige oppfatning. Ikke før IPCC ble etablert som en politisk, rådgivende organisasjon (1988). Da eskalerte klimaproblemene raskt til store, alarmerende høyder basert på store beregningsmodeller. Men drivhusgassenes strålingsbidrag kan beregnes meget godt for steder med kjente atmosfæriske forhold, minst like godt som med IPCC-modellene. Da er økt drivhuseffekt liten og fordelaktig.
Emisjon av jordstråling kan beregnes godt
Utstrålt energi fra jordoverflaten (langbølget infrarød stråling, ORL) til verdensrommet er siden 1883 beregnet med Stefan-Boltzmanns lov (KN 291) basert på den aktuelle overflatetemperatur (-90 til +60 C). Basert på kjennskap til atmosfæregassenes infrarøde spektrum kan absorpsjon og emisjon beregnes godt når strålingen passerer gjennom atmosfæren. Figuren under viser utstrålingen fra toppen av atmosfæren en skyfri dag over Guam (Stillehavet) i 1970 (326 ppm CO2). Energien er målt fra NIMBUS 4 satellitt (heltrukken, takkete linje, Michelson interferometer). Svakt prikket linje, som følger tett på den takkete, er beregnet emisjon med datidens database (HITRAN, US Air Force, i dag forbedret og supplert av databasen VAMDC). Kun H2O og CO2 er med i beregningene. Toppen betegnet O3 (ca. 1050 cm-1) skyldes ozon.
Så når man kjenner jordoverflatens temperatur og atmosfærens parametre kan man for klar himmel beregne atmosfæriske effekter fra absorpsjon og emisjon av infrarød stråling meget godt, i dag enda bedre enn over Guam.
Liten beregnet effekt fra økt CO2
Hva kan dette brukes til? Mengden drivhusgasser, atmosfæriske betingelser, utstrålingstemperatur fra bakken osv. kan endres og tilhørende effekter beregnes. Noen slike variasjoner for dagens situasjon er vist i neste figur som har stor likhet med den over. Den viser beregnet effekt av standard mengde drivhusgasser i atmosfæren (sort kurve med angivelse i hvilke frekvensområder gassene har effekt) opp til 86 km høyde (toppen av mesosfæren). Standard konsentrasjon i alle kurver ved havoverflaten er 7750 ppm H2O, 1.8 ppm CH4, 0.36 ppm N2O. Endringer i CO2-konsentrasjonen påvirker utstrålingen (Grønn kurve null CO2, sort kurve 400 ppm, og rød kurve 800 ppm). Blå kurve er beregnet utstråling fra jordoverflaten (Planck-stråling).
Energien som ut ifra figuren er tilført atmosfæren og kan lede til temperaturøkning, representeres ved arealet mellom utstrålingskurven fra bakken (Planck-kurven, blå) og utstrålingskurvene fra mesosfæren (takkede linjer sort, rød, grønn). Forskjellen skyldes atmosfærens avtagende temperatur med høyden (‘lapse rate’). Ved økt CO2-mengde emitteres ved høyere nivå som har lavere temperatur og derved mindre effektiv emisjon (Kirchhoffs lov 1859/Schwartzschilds ligning 1916). Effekten av dobling av CO2 er arealet mellom den røde og sorte kurve. Dersom det er temperaturinversjon i atmosfæren vil økt CO2-mengde lede til økt utstråling og avkjøling (Antarktis).
Dobling av nåværende mengder av CO2, N2O og CH4 øker samlet effekt bare med inntil et par prosent. Dagens konsentrasjoner av CF4/KFK og SF6 er meget små og gir ingen merkbar effekt. Selv med 100 ganger økning blir effekten mindre enn ved dobling av CO2-konsentrasjonen. Molekylenes spektra overlapper og målt totaleffekt er mindre enn summen av effekten av hvert av molekylene om de er alene. Spesielt gjelder dette for effekten av metan som dempes sterkt av vanndamp.
Fra områdene merket H2O ser man vanndampens store betydning og at økte vanndampmengder har liten effekt. Vanndampen foreligger i så store mengder at den med unntak av meget kalde områder er mettet.
Konklusjon
CO2 er en svak drivhusgass som over 200 ppm er på vei til å bli mettet med liten ytterligere effekt. Om CO2 var alene ville effekten av dobling være ca. 1 C for dagens situasjon. Det er ingen forsterkning, snarere er det påvist negative tilbakekoblinger som reduserer CO2s effekt. Ozon, metan, lystgass, og fluor- forbindelser har liten effekt (KN 270, Gavin Smith et al. 2019).
login on bht club and start your journey
You made some decent points there. I checked on the internet to find out more about the issue and found most individuals will go along with your views on this web site.|
Glad to be one of many visitants on this amazing site : D.
Wow, this post is pleasant, my younger sister is analyzing these things, so I am going to convey her.|
I’m now not certain the place you are getting your information, but good topic. I needs to spend some time learning more or working out more. Thanks for fantastic info I was searching for this info for my mission.|
We can see that we need to develop policies to deal with this trend.
I have to say this post was certainly informative and contains useful content for enthusiastic visitors. I will definitely bookmark this website for future reference and further viewing. cheers a bunch for sharing this with us!
Enjoyed reading through this, very good stuff, thanks. “Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” by Euripides.
I am often to blogging and i really appreciate your content. The article has really peaks my interest. I am going to bookmark your site and keep checking for new information.
I’m extremely impressed along with your writing abilities and also with the structure in your blog. Is that this a paid topic or did you modify it yourself? Anyway stay up the nice high quality writing, it’s uncommon to peer a nice blog like this one nowadays..|
Hi there, You’ve performed a great job. I will certainly digg it and for my part suggest to my friends. I am confident they’ll be benefited from this web site.
Valuable info. Fortunate me I found your site by chance, and I’m stunned why this twist of fate did not took place earlier! I bookmarked it.
Right now it appears like Expression Engine is the best blogging platform out there right now. (from what I’ve read) Is that what you’re using on your blog?|
I am very happy to look your post. Thanks a lot and i am taking a look ahead to touch you.
Pretty portion of content. I simply stumbled upon your blog and in accession capital to assert that I get in fact loved account your blog posts. Any way I will be subscribing in your augment or even I fulfillment you get right of entry to persistently quickly.|
Your smile is enough to make anyone’s day. It’s like a ray of sunshine breaking through the clouds, instantly lifting spirits and spreading warmth. Your genuine happiness is contagious, and it reminds everyone who sees it of the simple joys in life. Keep shining that radiant smile!
Rattling good information can be found on weblog. “Education is what most receive, many pass on, and few possess.” by Karl Kraus.
I am lucky that I discovered this website , precisely the right info that I was searching for! .
Hello.This article was extremely interesting, particularly since I was searching for thoughts on this subject last couple of days.
I believe you have remarked on some very interesting points , thankyou for the post.
Hello. Great job. I did not expect this on a Wednesday. This is a great story. Thanks!
Hello.This article was extremely interesting, particularly since I was searching for thoughts on this subject last couple of days.
I like what you guys are up too. This kind of clever work and coverage! Keep up the very good works guys I’ve you guys to my own blogroll.|
Wow, amazing blog layout! How long have you been blogging for? you made blogging look easy. The overall look of your site is great, as well as the content!
Hi, Neat post. There’s a problem with your site in internet explorer, would check this… IE still is the market leader and a large portion of people will miss your excellent writing due to this problem.
This will be helpful for my family.
I’m still learning from you, while I’m making my way to the top as well. I definitely liked reading all that is posted on your blog.Keep the information coming. I liked it!
I was reading through some of your content on this internet site and I believe this web site is very informative ! Continue posting .
Greetings… your blog is very interesting and beautifully written.
Aw, this was a very nice post. In idea I wish to put in writing like this moreover taking time and precise effort to make an excellent article! I procrastinate alot and by no means seem to get something done.
It’s very straightforward to find out any matter on net as compared to books, as I found this article at this site.|
I am curious to find out what blog system you happen to be utilizing? I’m having some small security problems with my latest blog and I would like to find something more risk-free. Do you have any solutions?|
A cool post there mate ! Thank you for posting.
With internet full of dupe articles it is nice to find original content like yours thank you so very much.
Chcesz znaleźć najlepsze kasyna online w Polsce i rozpocząć przygodę z grami kasynowymi w sieci? Na Game-cme.org czekają na Ciebie wyłącznie zweryfikowane, rzetelnie sprawdzone i rekomendowane platformy do gry. Sprawdź aktualny ranking TOP kasyn, skorzystaj z atrakcyjnych bonusów powitalnych oraz kodów promocyjnych i wybierz idealne miejsce do rozrywki. Zapraszamy do zapoznania się z naszym przewodnikiem! Wielu graczy zastanawia się, czy korzystanie z kasyn online w Polsce jest zgodne z prawem. Okazuje się, że krajowe przepisy w tej kwestii są wyjątkowo rygorystyczne. Wszystko za sprawą ustawy hazardowej z 2017 roku, która wymaga, aby każda platforma oferująca gry kasynowe online posiadała licencję wydawaną przez Ministerstwo Finansów. Jednak zdobycie takiego zezwolenia jest niemal niemożliwe, ponieważ spełnienie wymagań stawianych operatorom stanowi ogromne wyzwanie.
Porn
Pornstar
Sex
Viagra
Sex
Od 2019 roku Pelican Casino jest jednym z liderów wśród kasyn online w Polsce. Nasza platforma oferuje szeroki wybór gier, które zadowolą każdego gracza. Dzięki atrakcyjnym bonusom i promocjom, zapewniamy niezapomniane wrażenia. Jednym z naszych wyróżników jest bonus powitalny, który wynosi 150% do 2000 zł oraz 100 darmowych spinów. Minimalny depozyt to tylko 125 PLN, co sprawia, że nasza strona jest dostępna dla każdego. Licencja Curaçao gwarantuje bezpieczeństwo i uczciwość rozgrywek. Pelican Casino to nie tylko różnorodność gier, ale także responsywny design strony i szybkie transakcje. Zachęcamy do założenia konta i skorzystania z naszej oferty, która z pewnością spełni Twoje oczekiwania.
Our family had similar issues, thanks.
Porn
Assume you are doing good linking to position you on the first pages of search engines.
You write Formidable articles, keep up good work.
Porn
Pornstar
Καθώς τα χρόνια περνούν, η βιομηχανία του τζόγου συνεχώς εξελίσσεται, προσφέροντας ολοένα και περισσότερες επιλογές διασκέδασης. Τα καζίνο δεν αποτελούν απλώς χώρους παιχνιδιού, αλλά και εμπειρίες γεμάτες ένταση, όπου οι παίκτες αναζητούν τόσο τη διασκέδαση όσο και την πιθανότητα μεγάλων κερδών. Ειδικά στην Ελλάδα, όπου το πάθος για τα τυχερά παιχνίδια είναι βαθιά ριζωμένο, η δημοτικότητα του διαδικτυακού τζόγου αυξάνεται σταθερά. Μέσα σε αυτό το δυναμικό τοπίο, το Leon Casino έχει καταφέρει να ξεχωρίσει και να εδραιωθεί ως μία από τις πιο αξιόπιστες πλατφόρμες της αγοράς. Ο λόγος είναι προφανής: το Leon.bet Casino προσφέρει μια πλήρως εξοπλισμένη πλατφόρμα με πληθώρα επιλογών παιχνιδιών, διατηρώντας υψηλά πρότυπα ασφάλειας και ποιότητας στις υπηρεσίες του.
Scam
Porn
Kiedy jesteś w Holandii, ważne jest, aby upewnić się, że grasz w bezpiecznych kasynach. Poniżej przygotowaliśmy ranking najlepszych holenderskich kasyn online dla Polaków. Jesteśmy grupą doświadczonych graczy, programistów, autorów i entuzjastów hazardowej rozrywki. Podobnie jak wielu z was – jesteśmy pasjonatami hazardu i dostarczamy tylko sprawdzone i wiarygodne informacje na stronie. Poniżej dowiesz się, jak wybrać niezawodny zakład w Holandii, zarejestrować się i otrzymać bonusy. Jeśli nadal nie jesteś zdecydowany, które holenderskie kasyno online wybrać dla rozrywki, zapoznaj się z naszą listą.
Kasyno VAVADA oferuje najlepsze automaty do gier (sloty), popularne gry stołowe oraz nowoczesne kasyno na żywo. Serwis wyróżnia się rozbudowanymi bonusami i licznymi turniejami z wysokimi pulami nagród. Vavada rozszerzyła również listę dostępnych metod płatności, aby transakcje finansowe były szybkie i wygodne. Proces tworzenia konta w VAVADA jest bardzo prosty. Przycisk rejestracji znajduje się w prawym górnym rogu, obok przycisku logowania i czatu wsparcia. Każdy gracz może mieć tylko jedno konto. Aby się zarejestrować, należy: Podać numer telefonu lub adres e-mail. Ustawić hasło do konta. Wybrać walutę głównego salda. Kliknąć „Zarejestruj się”. Przed zakończeniem rejestracji musisz zaakceptować regulamin kasyna.
I found your blog through google and I must say, this is probably one of the best well prepared articles I have come across in a long time. I have bookmarked your site for more posts.
Viagra
I appreciate, cause I found just what I was looking for. You’ve ended my four day long hunt! God Bless you man. Have a great day. Bye -.
Buy Drugs
Buy Drugs
Viagra
Exactly what I was searching for, regards for putting up.
I am not really great with English but I get hold this very easygoing to understand.
Buy Drugs
Porn
Scam
A friend of mine advised this site. And yes. it has some useful pieces of info and I enjoyed scaning it. Therefore i would love to drop you a quick note to express my thank. Take care
Porn
Buy Drugs
Porn
A friend of mine advised me to review this site. And yes. it has some useful pieces of info and I enjoyed reading it.
Scam
Makes sense to me.
Viagra
Viagra
Sex
Sex
Sex
I am glad to be a visitor of this thoroughgoing web blog ! , regards for this rare information! .
Amazing content on your website.
My brother suggested I might like this websiteHe was once totally rightThis post truly made my dayYou can not imagine simply how a lot time I had spent for this information! Thanks!
Porn
Buy Drugs
Appreciate this post. Will try it out.|
Equity release solutions may provide the financial freedom you’ve been looking for. Learn how to use the equity tied up in your home without having to move.
Can you be more specific about the content of your article? After reading it, I still have some doubts. Hope you can help me.
I would share your post with my sis.
Scam
Great blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere? A theme like yours with a few simple adjustements would really make my blog jump out. Please let me know where you got your theme. Many thanks|
Scam
This is one very informative blog. I like the way you write and I will bookmark your blog to my favorites.
Scam
Porn site
Sex
of course like your web-site however you have to check the spelling on several of your posts. Many of them are rife with spelling problems and I find it very troublesome to tell the reality then again I will surely come back again.
Sex
Hi there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any trouble with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing several weeks of hard work due to no back up. Do you have any solutions to protect against hackers?
Sex
Sex
Amazing content on your website.
Pornstar
Your resources are well developed.
Scam
If you don’t mind, where do you host your weblog? I am looking for a very good web host and your webpage seams to be extremely fast and up most the time…
Porn
Sex
Pornstar
With this issue, it’s important to have someone like you with something to say that really matters.
Surprisingly good post. I really found your primary webpage and additionally wanted to suggest that have essentially enjoyed searching your website blog posts. Whatever the case I’ll always be subscribing to your entire supply and I hope you jot down ever again soon!
I’m really impressed along with your writing skills as well as with the structure on your blog. Is this a paid theme or did you modify it your self? Either way keep up the excellent quality writing, it’s uncommon to see a great weblog like this one these days..|
Substantially, the post is really the best on this laudable topic. I concur with your conclusions and will eagerly watch forward to your future updates.Just saying thanx will not just be enough, for the wonderful lucidity in your writing.
Good job for bringing something important to the internet!
I don’t normally comment but I gotta say appreciate it for the post on this one : D.
It is perfect time to make some plans for the future and it is time to be happy. I’ve read this post and if I could I want to suggest you some interesting things or suggestions. Perhaps you can write next articles referring to this article. I wish to read more things about it!
you may have an ideal blog here! would you prefer to make some invite posts on my blog?