by
https://www.klimarealistene.com/2021/08/04/meteorologisk-institutt-med-pseudovitenskap/
Meteorologisk institutt med pseudovitenskap
- august 4, 2021
- 23:13
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Arktis, Klimapolitikk
Klimanytt nr. 301. Redaktør: Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Forfattet av Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Meteorologisk institutts faglige renommé har falmet med deres uvitenskapelige klimarelaterte utspill. Manipulering med start og endepunkter i tidsserier, manglende historisk perspektiv og sviktende vitenskapelig integritet bringer fremstillingen over i pseudovitenskap.
Meteorologisk institutt (DNMI) er ikke som før. Da kunne Leif Juster og andre spøke med «Mot normalt» og stor feilprosent i spådommene. Likevel hadde Instituttet høy troverdighet. Folk oppfattet at meteorologene gjorde sitt faglig beste og formidlet værmeldingen på en ærlig måte innen et meget komplekst fagområde med stor usikkerhet. Dagens værmelding utarbeides nok med samme innstilling og med bedre data og metoder.
Meteorologisk institutt med klimaagenda
Men dagens klimarelaterte kommentarer til værmeldingene og deres nettsider er ofte lite troverdige, og mye av deres øvrige klimainformasjon har svekket deres faglige posisjon kraftig blant dem som følger med. Departementet (KMD) som de er underlagt, og NRKs agendapregede klimaformidlere er sikkert fornøyd, i motsetning til folk som ønsker korrekt informasjon. Stadig oftere skinner det igjennom en streben etter å forklare varme og kritiske værhendelser som del av menneskeskapt klimapåvirkning, men det er ikke i tråd med vitenskapen innen ekstremvær som har store bidrag av kaos og ukjente mekanismer.
Det blir faglig sett uholdbart når DNMIs egne ekstremvær-statistikker for Norge siden 1994 ikke viser økende tendens, snarere en svak nedgang (KN 293). Sommerens regionale varmeperioder som hyppig hausses opp og forklares med eller hintes til menneskeskapt CO2-oppvarming, skjer mens den globale middeltemperatur, ekstremområdene inkludert, har sunket en halv grad og er nede på gjennomsnittet for perioden 1997-2015, betegnet som temperaturutflating i IPCCs hovedrapport AR 5.
Når områder har kaldere perioder hintes til at dette bare er regionalt. Eller det omtales ikke. Jeg leste at det lokalt var satt over 4000 kulderekorder i USA sist vinter uten at det utbroderes, selv om klodens middeltemperatur sank med ca. 0.5 C – i størrelse, halvparten av det som ellers betegnes som dramatisk og klimakrise når det dreier seg om oppvarming over hele 140 år (ca. 1 C).
De mange feilaktige forklaringer fra DNMI og NRK som mediene bringer videre, har gitt grunnlag for å etablere nettstedet «værstat.no». De baserer sin virksomhet på å korrigere feilaktige, manglende og tendensiøse meldinger knyttet til værstatistikk. Da har de nok å gjøre og gir mange fine eksempler.
Feilaktig bruk av start og sluttpunkt i måleserier
En kategori av pseudovitenskap, en lumsk variant, er når budskapet isolert sett ikke er direkte feil, men i forhold til en helhetlig sammenheng blir budskapet fordreid og feilaktig og tilfredsstiller ikke vitenskapelige krav. I klimasammenheng finnes en kategori med et stort antall eksempler på manipulerende valg av start og endepunkt i måleserier.
Et godt eksempel er AMAP-rapporten (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme) som ble forelagt det politiske møte på høyt politisk nivå i Arktisk råd 20. mai 2021. Hovedkonklusjonen var at Arktis varmes dramatisk med hurtige klimaendringer og tilhørende effekter. Driverne er menneskeskapt økning av drivhusgasser. Tiltak er nødvendig.
Bakgrunnsmaterialet var rapporten med temperaturkurve angitt innen den røde rammen for Arktis (grå) og global middeltemperatur (rød) mellom 1971 og 2019 (Se analyse fra Værstat her). Leserens inntrykk er jo åpenbart at konklusjonen er korrekt, noen tror det også er dramatisk. Men ser man hele kurven fra år 1900 under ett, som Værstat har inkludert og tydeliggjort med de gule kurvene, dannes et helt annet bilde, med en helt annen konklusjon. Den blir enda tydeligere om mønsteret videreføres bakover til en ny topp i 1870-årene som viser minimumet rundt 1910. DNMI som har en sentral rolle i dette arbeidet har bare formelle, uholdbare bortforklaringer.
For disse systematiske variasjonene med anslagsvis 60 års sykluser er velkjente, de finnes andre steder på kloden og er markante i Arktis. Siden antropogent CO2 begynte å øke nevneverdig først etter 1950 fremtrer en motsatt konklusjon: Variasjonen er ikke unik, den er omtrent like markant uten CO2 og syklusen er ikke i fase, snarere motfase, med antropogene CO2-utslipp.
Velkjente arktiske, naturlige variasjoner
De omtalte naturlige variasjoner er velkjente. Utenlandske og norske aviser hadde en rekke artikler særlig i 1930-årene som intervjuet og oppsummerte.
Meteorolog Hesselberg fra DNMI uttalte til Aftenposten i 1947 at temperaturen i Arktis hadde steget jevnt og trutt de siste 25 år med markant retrett av isbreer og betydelige endringer i naturen. Periodiske variasjoner var en mulighet man undersøkte. Professor Knut Fægri omtalte at isbreer over hele verden gikk tilbake. Morgenbladet skrev i 1935 at den amerikanske meteorologen, prof. Kincer hadde påvist at hele verden ble varmere siden midten av 1800-tallet. Aftenposten siterte i 1936 dosent Adolf Hoel som påpekte at Svalbard var blitt ca 7 C varmere om vinteren, omtrent samme relative endring som i senere perioder.
Oseanografen, prof. Bjørn Helland Hansen, uttalte også til Aftenposten i 1938 at sist vinter hadde fangstfolk ikke kunnet observere haviskanten fra fjellene på nordsiden. Som en anerkjent oseanograf påpekte han at Golfstrømmen brakte varmere vann inn i Arktis. Klima nærmer seg forholdene under Bronsealderen. Kaptein Ingebrigtsen (seilt i Arktis siden 1867) skrev i en rapport fra 1922 at det var et m,ye varmere Arktis han ikke kjente igjen. Temperaturen i havet var ikke de normale 2-3 C, men 10-15 C. Russiske Pravda omtalte i september 1945 meget lite is i Arktis som Dagbladet ofret en liten kolonne med 8 linjer på: «Snart isfritt til Nordpolen».
Konklusjon
Selv ikke justerte rådata og statistiske varianter kan rokke ved dette overbevisende observasjonsmaterialet. DNMI har i den senere tid sviktet sin vitenskapelige tradisjon og bedriver pseudovitenskap om klima. Som Norges delegasjon gjorde da de støttet Canadas forslag om å sløyfe referanser i IPCC-rapporten 2007 om oppvarmingen 1920-40. Det som tidligere ledende meteorologer omtalte uten dramatikk, snarere forklart som klimaforbedringer etter den Lille istid.
Somebody essentially lend a hand to make severely articles I would state. That is the first time I frequented your website page and up to now? I surprised with the analysis you made to make this actual submit extraordinary. Magnificent task!
Thanks for your article on this site. From my own personal experience, periodically softening way up a photograph may possibly provide the photography with a little bit of an artistic flare. Often times however, this soft cloud isn’t exactly what you had at heart and can sometimes spoil a normally good snapshot, especially if you consider enlarging that.
Terrific paintings! This is the type of info that should be shared around the internet. Shame on Google for not positioning this submit upper! Come on over and talk over with my site . Thank you =)
I have noticed that car insurance providers know the cars and trucks which are liable to accidents along with risks. Additionally, these people know what kind of cars are susceptible to higher risk as well as higher risk they’ve got the higher the particular premium rate. Understanding the easy basics of car insurance will allow you to choose the right form of insurance policy which will take care of your needs in case you happen to be involved in an accident. Thank you sharing the ideas for your blog.
One more thing is that when you are evaluating a good on-line electronics store, look for online stores that are consistently updated, trying to keep up-to-date with the latest products, the most beneficial deals, along with helpful information on goods and services. This will make sure that you are dealing with a shop that stays atop the competition and give you things to make educated, well-informed electronics expenditures. Thanks for the critical tips I have learned from your blog.
you have a great blog here! would you like to make some invite posts on my blog?
Thanks a lot for sharing this with all of us you actually recognize what you are speaking approximately! Bookmarked. Kindly additionally seek advice from my web site =). We can have a hyperlink trade contract between us!
I’m extremely impressed with your writing skills as well as with the layout on your weblog. Is this a paid theme or did you modify it yourself? Anyway keep up the nice quality writing, it?s rare to see a nice blog like this one nowadays..
I have realized that of all different types of insurance, health care insurance is the most controversial because of the turmoil between the insurance plan company’s obligation to remain afloat and the buyer’s need to have insurance policy. Insurance companies’ earnings on wellbeing plans are certainly low, as a result some organizations struggle to profit. Thanks for the strategies you share through this website.
I do not even know how I stopped up right here, but I thought this post was once good. I don’t realize who you are but certainly you’re going to a famous blogger when you are not already 😉 Cheers!
One thing I’ve noticed is that there are plenty of misguided beliefs regarding the finance institutions intentions any time talking about property foreclosure. One delusion in particular is the fact that the bank would like your house. Your banker wants your hard earned cash, not your own home. They want the funds they lent you with interest. Averting the bank will only draw the foreclosed final result. Thanks for your publication.
I have been exploring for a bit for any high quality articles or blog posts on this kind of area . Exploring in Yahoo I at last stumbled upon this site. Reading this info So i?m happy to convey that I’ve an incredibly good uncanny feeling I discovered just what I needed. I most certainly will make certain to do not forget this site and give it a glance on a constant basis.
What?s Happening i am new to this, I stumbled upon this I’ve found It absolutely helpful and it has helped me out loads. I hope to contribute & aid other users like its aided me. Great job.
I do believe all of the ideas you have presented on your post. They are very convincing and can certainly work. Nonetheless, the posts are too quick for novices. Could you please prolong them a bit from next time? Thanks for the post.
In this great design of things you actually get an A+ with regard to effort. Where exactly you lost me personally was first in the specifics. As people say, the devil is in the details… And that couldn’t be more true here. Having said that, let me tell you what exactly did work. Your writing can be highly powerful and that is possibly why I am making the effort to comment. I do not really make it a regular habit of doing that. Next, even though I can see a jumps in logic you come up with, I am not really confident of how you seem to connect your points which inturn produce your conclusion. For right now I will, no doubt yield to your position however wish in the foreseeable future you actually connect the facts much better.
Thanks for your interesting article. One other problem is that mesothelioma is generally a result of the inhalation of fibres from mesothelioma, which is a extremely dangerous material. It really is commonly found among workers in the structure industry who may have long experience of asbestos. It is caused by moving into asbestos insulated buildings for a long period of time, Inherited genes plays a huge role, and some persons are more vulnerable on the risk than others.
Amazing blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere? A theme like yours with a few simple tweeks would really make my blog jump out. Please let me know where you got your design. Thank you
It?s actually a great and useful piece of information. I?m satisfied that you shared this helpful info with us. Please keep us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.
I enjoy what you guys are up too. Such clever work and coverage! Keep up the amazing works guys I’ve added you guys to my blogroll.
I’ve learned some new things from a blog post. Also a thing to I have recognized is that generally, FSBO sellers may reject a person. Remember, they’d prefer to not use your companies. But if you maintain a gradual, professional relationship, offering help and being in contact for around four to five weeks, you will usually manage to win a discussion. From there, a house listing follows. Cheers
Thanks for expressing your ideas. One thing is that college students have a choice between federal government student loan and a private education loan where it truly is easier to choose student loan debt consolidation reduction than in the federal student loan.
You made some first rate factors there. I looked on the internet for the issue and found most individuals will go along with with your website.
This article is a refreshing change! The author’s distinctive perspective and insightful analysis have made this a truly engrossing read. I’m appreciative for the effort she has put into creating such an informative and thought-provoking piece. Thank you, author, for sharing your knowledge and igniting meaningful discussions through your exceptional writing!
Thanks for your publication on the vacation industry. We would also like to add that if you are one senior taking into account traveling, it’s absolutely crucial to buy travel insurance for senior citizens. When traveling, retirees are at biggest risk of having a health emergency. Having the right insurance policy package on your age group can safeguard your health and provide peace of mind.
I have realized some new items from your web page about pc’s. Another thing I have always presumed is that computer systems have become something that each household must have for a lot of reasons. They offer convenient ways to organize households, pay bills, search for information, study, listen to music and perhaps watch shows. An innovative solution to complete these tasks has been a laptop computer. These personal computers are portable ones, small, effective and transportable.
Thanks for your beneficial post. Over time, I have come to be able to understand that the particular symptoms of mesothelioma cancer are caused by this build up associated fluid between lining on the lung and the torso cavity. The illness may start in the chest area and get distributed to other parts of the body. Other symptoms of pleural mesothelioma include weight loss, severe inhaling trouble, throwing up, difficulty eating, and infection of the neck and face areas. It ought to be noted that some people living with the disease do not experience just about any serious signs or symptoms at all.
I have learn several just right stuff here. Definitely price bookmarking for revisiting. I surprise how so much attempt you set to create any such great informative website.
Thanks for the strategies you are revealing on this web site. Another thing I’d prefer to say is getting hold of copies of your credit file in order to examine accuracy of any detail will be the first measures you have to execute in repairing credit. You are looking to clear your credit profile from harmful details mistakes that damage your credit score.
This is very interesting, You’re a very skilled blogger. I’ve joined your feed and look forward to seeking more of your excellent post. Also, I have shared your website in my social networks!
It’s my belief that mesothelioma is most fatal cancer. It’s got unusual properties. The more I really look at it a lot more I am certain it does not behave like a real solid tissues cancer. If mesothelioma is usually a rogue virus-like infection, so there is the possibility of developing a vaccine in addition to offering vaccination for asbestos uncovered people who are open to high risk of developing upcoming asbestos linked malignancies. Thanks for giving your ideas for this important ailment.
I have read some excellent stuff here. Definitely value bookmarking for revisiting. I surprise how so much attempt you put to make this sort of great informative site.
In these days of austerity along with relative panic about incurring debt, lots of people balk against the idea of employing a credit card to make acquisition of merchandise as well as pay for any occasion, preferring, instead only to rely on this tried as well as trusted way of making payment – cash. However, in case you have the cash available to make the purchase completely, then, paradoxically, that’s the best time to use the card for several good reasons.
Good website! I truly love how it is simple on my eyes and the data are well written. I am wondering how I might be notified whenever a new post has been made. I have subscribed to your feed which must do the trick! Have a great day!
Great work! This is the type of info that should be shared around the web. Shame on the search engines for not positioning this post higher! Come on over and visit my website . Thanks =)
Coming from my investigation, shopping for gadgets online may be easily expensive, however there are some principles that you can use to acquire the best discounts. There are generally ways to come across discount promotions that could help to make one to ge thet best electronic products products at the lowest prices. Great blog post.
Thanks for your posting. I also think that laptop computers are getting to be more and more popular lately, and now are usually the only type of computer included in a household. It is because at the same time they are becoming more and more affordable, their working power keeps growing to the point where they may be as effective as desktop through just a few years back.
This article is a refreshing change! The author’s unique perspective and perceptive analysis have made this a truly fascinating read. I’m grateful for the effort she has put into producing such an informative and thought-provoking piece. Thank you, author, for sharing your wisdom and igniting meaningful discussions through your exceptional writing!
A formidable share, I just given this onto a colleague who was doing a bit of analysis on this. And he in fact bought me breakfast as a result of I found it for him.. smile. So let me reword that: Thnx for the deal with! However yeah Thnkx for spending the time to discuss this, I really feel strongly about it and love studying more on this topic. If potential, as you turn into experience, would you thoughts updating your weblog with extra details? It is extremely useful for me. Massive thumb up for this blog post!
As I web site possessor I believe the content matter here is rattling wonderful , appreciate it for your efforts. You should keep it up forever! Best of luck.
Do you have a spam issue on this website; I also am a blogger, and I was wanting to know your situation; many of us have developed some nice methods and we are looking to swap solutions with others, please shoot me an email if interested.
Hello, i think that i saw you visited my blog so i came to ?go back the prefer?.I’m trying to to find issues to enhance my site!I assume its adequate to use some of your ideas!!
Thanks for the concepts you have discussed here. Additionally, I believe there are several factors which keep your motor insurance premium lower. One is, to think about buying cars and trucks that are from the good listing of car insurance companies. Cars which have been expensive are usually more at risk of being snatched. Aside from that insurance coverage is also depending on the value of the car, so the more expensive it is, then the higher a premium you make payment for.
Hi, Neat post. There is a problem with your website in internet explorer, would check this? IE still is the market leader and a huge portion of people will miss your great writing due to this problem.
What i don’t understood is actually how you’re not actually much more well-liked than you may be right now. You’re very intelligent. You realize thus significantly relating to this subject, produced me personally consider it from a lot of varied angles. Its like women and men aren’t fascinated unless it?s one thing to do with Lady gaga! Your own stuffs great. Always maintain it up!
Thanks for the good writeup. It if truth be told was a entertainment account it. Look advanced to more brought agreeable from you! However, how can we be in contact?
Have you ever thought about writing an ebook or guest authoring on other websites? I have a blog centered on the same subjects you discuss and would really like to have you share some stories/information. I know my subscribers would enjoy your work. If you’re even remotely interested, feel free to send me an e mail.
I’ve learned new things through the blog post. One more thing to I have recognized is that normally, FSBO sellers will reject you actually. Remember, they can prefer never to use your providers. But if you actually maintain a steady, professional relationship, offering assistance and remaining in contact for about four to five weeks, you will usually be able to win interviews. From there, a listing follows. Thanks a lot
One more thing. I believe that there are several travel insurance web sites of reliable companies that allow you to enter your holiday details and obtain you the insurance quotes. You can also purchase this international holiday insurance policy online by using your credit card. All you have to do is usually to enter your travel information and you can be aware of the plans side-by-side. Only find the system that suits your financial allowance and needs after which use your bank credit card to buy them. Travel insurance on the internet is a good way to search for a reputable company with regard to international travel cover. Thanks for sharing your ideas.
There are some fascinating cut-off dates on this article but I don?t know if I see all of them heart to heart. There is some validity but I’ll take hold opinion until I look into it further. Good article , thanks and we would like extra! Added to FeedBurner as properly
whoah this blog is magnificent i like studying your articles. Keep up the good paintings! You realize, a lot of people are searching around for this info, you could aid them greatly.
I was recommended this website by my cousin. I am not sure whether this post is written by him as no one else know such detailed about my problem. You are wonderful! Thanks!
Hello my friend! I want to say that this post is awesome, nice written and come with almost all important infos. I would like to look more posts like this .
Magnificent website. Plenty of useful info here. I?m sending it to several friends ans also sharing in delicious. And certainly, thanks for your effort!
Hi there are using WordPress for your blog platform? I’m new to the blog world but I’m trying to get started and set up my own. Do you require any html coding knowledge to make your own blog? Any help would be really appreciated!
Very often I go to see this blog. It very much is pleasant to me. Thanks the author
thank, I thoroughly enjoyed reading your article. I really appreciate your wonderful knowledge and the time you put into educating the rest of us.
I think this is among the so much vital info for me. And i’m happy reading your article. But wanna remark on few common issues, The site style is wonderful, the articles is really excellent : D. Just right job, cheers
Your idea is outstanding; the issue is something that not enough persons are speaking intelligently about. I’m very happy that I stumbled throughout this in my seek for one thing regarding this.
Can I simply say what a relief to find somebody who really understands what they’re discussing on the
internet. You actually understand how to bring a problem to
light and make it important. More and more people have to check this out and understand
this side of the story. I can’t believe you’re not more popular because you most certainly possess the gift.
If some one wishes expert view on the topic of running a
blog afterward i recommend him/her to go to see
this weblog, Keep up the pleasant work.
Oh my goodness! Amazing article dude! Thank you, However I am
experiencing issues with your RSS. I don’t understand the reason why
I am unable to join it. Is there anyone else getting similar RSS issues?
Anybody who knows the answer can you kindly respond? Thanx!!
A wholly agreeable point of view, I think primarily based on my own experience with this that your points are well made, and your analysis on target.
I read this paragraph completely regarding the resemblance of
latest and preceding technologies, it’s remarkable article.