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Klimarealistenes prosesskriv til Høyesterett
Klimanytt nr. 289. Redaktør: Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Forfattet av Nicolay Stang
Etter to tap i retten har Greenpeace og Natur og Ungdom anket til Høyesterett. Klimarealistene har sendt inn et prosesskriv. For det er jo ingen klimakrise. Man har ikke engang kriterier for hva som er en krise. En 15% grønnere klode og rekordavlinger er vel et enormt pre i en verden som går mot 10 milliarder mennesker.
I saken Greenpeace og Natur og Ungdom har anlagt mot staten for brudd på Grunnlovens § 112 etter tildelingsvedtak om utvinningstillatelse i Barentshavet (23. konsesjonsrunde), har de tapt i så vel tingrett som lagmannsrett. I ankeerklæringen til Høyesterett hevder de at bakgrunnen for at vedtaket er i strid med Grunnlovens § 112 er at «Verden er enige om at det foreligger en klimakrise, og at CO2-utslippene må reduseres svært raskt og til netto null rundt 2050.»
Vitenskapelig innspill fra Klimarealistene
Klimarealistene har benyttet seg av retten til å avgi innlegg. Nærmere tusen vitenskapsfolk herunder to medlemmer av Det Norske Videnskaps-Akademi, nobelprisvinner i fysikk Ivar Giæver og atmosfærefysiker Richard Lindzen, har nylig undertegnet et opprop om at det ikke finnes en klimakrise. Påstanden om at det er enighet om dette er derfor usann. Det foreligger heller ingen kriterier om hva som kjennetegner en global klimakrise eller er optimalt klima på klodens kontinenter og soner. Klimarealistene vil med sitt innlegg også vise at påstanden om at CO2-utslippene må reduseres svært raskt og til null rundt 2050 også baserer seg på feilaktig grunnlag.
I lagmannsretten hevdet seniorforsker ved CICERO, Bjørn Samset, at vi kan regulere Jordens atmosfæretemperatur ved å endre våre CO2-utslipp. Empirien viser imidlertid noe annet. Under den store depresjonen i mellomkrigstiden ble utslippene redusert dramatisk. Samtidig steg temperaturen i atmosfæren på samme måte som på slutten av 1900-tallet. Under oljekrisen i 1973 økte atmosfærens innhold av CO2 mer enn i de foregående år til tross for sterkt reduserte utslipp. Etter nedstengning i verdensøkonomien på grunn av koronavirus er utslippene markant redusert, men CO2-nivået i atmosfæren har paradoksalt nok nådd rekordhøyder. Etter 1950 da de menneskeskapte CO2-utslippene skjøt fart, sank den globale gjennomsnittstemperaturen frem til slutten av 1970-tallet. Den største andel av CO2-utslippene forårsaket av mennesker har foregått siden 1996 med tilnærmet flat global temperatur frem til siste El Niño i 2015/16.
Det er åpenbart at disse empiriske fakta gir sterk dissens i vitenskapelige miljøer om hva som er dominerende årsak til klimavariasjoner, menneskeskapt eller naturlig. Man kommer ikke forbi at variasjoner før 1950 er forårsaket av naturlige fenomener. Historisk sett overgår de langt dagens variasjoner. Det er intet unikt i dagens situasjon og slett ingen krise. Historisk varme perioder har stimulert til vekst i samfunnene. Det er de kalde tider som gir problemer. Richard Tol, med tre professorater og metodebok i miljø og klimastrategi som benyttes av FN, har i en metastudie i 2014 konkludert at: «Verden vil bli et bedre sted for fattig og rik ved en økning av temperaturen inntil 2.2 C». En 15% grønnere klode de siste 40 år støtter opp om det.
Ifølge den siste hovedrapporten til FNs klimapanel (AR5 2013) skyldes rundt 4 prosent av CO2-utslippene menneskelig aktivitet. Disse inngår i et temperaturavhengig CO2-kretsløp. Blant annet vil høyere overflatetemperatur i havet gi påfølgende utgassing av CO2 som vi tydelig observerte under en El Niño der varmt vann veller opp til overflaten i Stillehavet.
Praktisk umulig å erstatte fossil energi innen 2050
Selv om retten skulle akseptere Samsets modeller, lar det seg ikke gjøre å redusere utslippene til netto null rundt 2050. Over 80 prosent av verdens energiforbruk kommer fra kull, olje og gass. Sol og vind bidrar med under 3%. Slik har det vært lenge til tross for at det er brukt enorme beløp inklusive statlige subsidieordninger, på vindturbiner og solpaneler. Dersom vi skulle redusere den globale bruken av fossil energi med 90 prosent i 2050 uten å redusere energiproduksjonen for en voksende befolkning, må vi ferdigstille 1500 vindturbiner på 2 MW eller 13 millioner solcellepaneler med spisseffekt på 300 W daglig de neste 12000 dagene. I tillegg må det bygges kraftverk som kan levere strøm når det er vindstille og solen ikke skinner. Alternativt kan 1,5 kjernekraftverk på 1 GW innvies daglig de neste tolv tusen dagene. Det ser altså ut som den sakkyndige seniorforsker fra Cicero, Bjørn Samset, er fullstendig i utakt med realitetene.
De samlede CO2-utslippene fra norsk petroleumsindustri utgjør bare en drøy tredjedel av CO2-utslippene fra ett av de mange kullkraftverkene som bygges i verden i dag. Med klimamodellen MAGICC kan vi beregne den teoretiske virkningen av petroleumsindustriens utslipp. Selv om modellen sannsynligvis opererer med en for høy følsomhet for CO2, viser den en redusert global middeltemperatur i år 2100 på kun 0,000007 grader dersom vi kutter all produksjon i dag. Bortfallet av norsk petroleum vil imidlertid bli erstattet av andre lands produksjon så utslippene reduseres ikke av den grunn — snarere tvert om fordi vi produserer med lavere utslipp enn andre. Den eneste effekten vil være en ødelagt økonomi.
Retningslinjene brutt
I retningslinjer for sakkyndigarbeid i domstolene utarbeidet av Dommerforeningen, Riksadvokaten, Regjeringsadvokaten og Advokatforeningen står det at retten bør sørge for omtale av faglige omstridte spørsmål en sak reiser, om det foreligger ulike retninger eller «skoler» i fagmiljøet, herunder hvordan den foreslåtte sakkyndige plasserer seg i denne debatten. Sakens dokumenter tyder ikke på at dette er gjennomført. Det synes heller ikke som om sakkyndige i tilstrekkelig grad har redegjort for årsakssammenhenger og tvil. I tillegg skilles det ikke klart mellom faktiske forhold og modellbaserte påstander. For å bøte på dette har Klimarealistenes vitenskapelige råd utarbeidet et faglig bilag med 9 understøttende appendikser.
Konklusjon
Norsk rettspraksis har brutt retningslinjene for å belyse en sak fra to sider. Ikke i en bagatellmessig sak, men i det norske samfunns mest livsviktige økonomiske sak – nedleggelse av norsk petroleumsvirksomhet. Klimarealistenes ubetalte bidrag er av prinsipiell nasjonal betydning. Mens 40 milliarder årlig går til klimatiltak over statsbudsjettet basert på ideologibasert forskning.
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