by Ingen bevis for målbare CO2-bidrag
Forfattet av Petter Tuvnes.
I en artikkel påstår nettstedet Faktisk.no at «Jo, det finnes vitenskapelig belegg for at menneskeskapte klimautslipp kan bidra til global oppvarming.» Mange av påstandene er tidligere tilbakevist og her viser vi det ikke er holdbare «bevis» for at CO2 bidrar målbart til global oppvarming eller klimaendringer.
Faktisk.no henviser til eksperimenter utført av Tyndall og Arrhenius på 1800-tallet. Disse forskerne hadde primitivt utstyr sammenlignet med dagens. Den sveisiske forskeren, fysiker dr. Thomas Allmendinger har etterprøvet eksperimentene til Tyndall med mer moderne apparatur og bedre måleinstrumenter beskrevet i rapporten «The Refutation of the Climate Greenhouse Theory and a Proposal for a Hopeful Alternative.»
Han har funnet en rekke feil og mangler ved de gamle målingene. Det som er oppsiktsvekkende er at ingen i nyere tid har gjort dette med den teknologien man har i dag, og enda mer merkelig at ingen har målt temperaturforløpet av gassene under påvirkning av IR-stråling. Man har bare målt IR-absorpsjon, men absorbert IR-stråling kan re-emitteres uten målbar temperaturpåvirkning på omgivelsene.
Dr. Allmendingers forsøk ble gjort med sollys, IR-lampe og varmeplate med gasser og luft både samtidig i rør side ved side av isopor og enkeltvis. Hans viktigste innvendinger mot de gamle målingene fra 1800-tallet er:
- Selve målingen av absorpsjon er primitiv og bare relativ, semi-kvantitativ
- Ingen justering for tap av intensitet som funksjon av avstand fra strålingskilde
- Tyndall brukte metallrør med stor varmeledningsevne som påvirker gassene
- Kun måling av absorpsjon, ingen måling av temperatur eller faktisk oppvarming
Konklusjonene etter dr. Allmendingers eksperimenter er at det er nesten ingen forskjell på «drivhusgassen» CO2 og vanlig luft når det gjelder respons på IR-stråling. Begge gasser varmes opp til en grensetemperatur etter en tid. Også edelgasser har samme oppførsel, om enn grensetemperaturen kan være forskjellig. CO2 er altså ikke mer spesiell enn luften forøvrig når det gjelder oppvarming. Dette er også bekreftet av andre forskere ved hjelp av Raman-spektroskopi.
Lignende målinger er også nylig utført i Norge. Se her for Solheims forsøk, og her for fysikeren Seims forsøk som var anbefalt av NASA. Det verifiserte at CO2 stopper noe stråling, men begge forsøkene viste at det ikke blir større temperaturøking med CO2 sammenlignet med luft. Solheims forsøk viste endatil negativ temperaturfølsomhet med mer CO2.
Antagelsene til klimaforskerne har hittil vært at bare såkalte «drivhusgasser» responderer på IR-stråling, men det stemmer altså ikke. Både luft og edelgasser gir naturlig temperaturøking. Det er opplagt ettersom alle gasser har en viss varmekapasitet. Når solen skinner ned gjennom luften en skyfri dag så svekkes intensiteten fordi hele atmosfæren varmes opp fra solen i tillegg til konveksjon.
Når vi vet at det er så lite CO2 i luften som 0,04 % (økning fra 0,03 % over 150 år) og CO2 ikke er vesentlig forskjellig fra resten av luften, da er det åpenbart at CO2 har null målbar virkning på temperaturen i atmosfæren. I tester med oppvarming fra varmeplate og vertikalt oppover viste det seg til og med at det ble lavest temperatur med CO2 lengst vekk fra varmekilden. Null eller endatil negativ virkning av CO2 i atmosfæren medfører også null virkning på global temperatur og klimaendringer fra CO2.
De gamle eksperimentene og teoriene til Tyndall og Arrhenius, som bygde på Tyndall, må derfor ansees å være tilbakevist av dr. Allmendinger.
Faktisk.no mener det finnes flere «fingeravtrykkstudier» som bekrefter drivhusteorien. Det opprinnelige «fingeravtrykket» skulle være en «hot spot», et varmt område i atmosfæren over tropene, men noe slikt fingeravtrykk er ikke påvist, her ifølge Dr. Spencer.
Klimapanelets drivhuseffekt
I følge «drivhusteorien» til FNs klimapanel (IPCC) skal «klimagasser» som CO2, metan m.m. absorbere varmestråling fra jordoverflaten og stråle tilbake, slik at jordoverflaten blir oppvarmet enda mer. Det er en kjensgjerning at virkningen av CO2 øker bare avtagende logaritmisk, og at mer CO2 nå har svært liten virkning. CO2 mottar stråling fra en retning, fra jordoverflaten, men avgir stråling i alle retninger, slik at CO2-strålingen spres og er lite effektiv.
Avkjølende varmestråling fra jorden skal teoretisk bli hindret av substanser som kommer i mellom jorden og det frie verdensrommet. Slik kan atmosfæren med CO2 være dempende på avkjølingshastigheten av jorden, og bidra til en varmere jord, men med kun 0,04 % CO2 i luften så har CO2 ingen målbar virkning sammenlignet med alle andre prosesser som påvirker klima (mer enn 100 prosesser i følge prof. Stott, UK). Skyer har meget stor dempende virkning på utstråling, men ikke CO2.
Faktisk-artikkelen viser også til forskning publisert i tidsskriftet Nature av Feldman et al. 2015. Også denne forskningen er tilbakevist, se Klimanytt 114. Feldman hadde observert at stråling i atmosfæren fra CO2 økte og svingte i takt med øking og årlige sykluser til CO2, se fig. 1 venstre. Men, Feldman oppga ikke hvordan temperaturen endret seg i de områdene som målingene fant sted, og i Alaska sank januar-temperaturen i måleperioden, fig. 1 høyre. Altså ikke noe konsistent bevis for at økt CO2 gir økt temperatur.
Feldman kan også tilbakevises med målinger av Humlum, Stordahl, Solheim 2013. De registrerte tidsserier for CO2, som Feldman, men også temperatur i hav og på land, se fig. 2.
Figur 2 viser at endringer i global havtemperatur (blå kurve) kommer litt før endringer i bakketemperatur (rød kurve), og så etter ca 10 måneder kommer endringer i atmosfærisk CO
2 (grønn kurve).
Humlum et al. har vist at årlige endringer av global temperatur skjer før endringer i CO2 innholdet i atmosfæren. Det må derfor være temperaturendringene og syklisk biologisk aktivitet som får atmosfærisk CO2 til å endre seg i korte tidsperioder som vist her, men også i lange tidsperioder som analyse av iskjerner fra både Antarktis (Vostok) og Grønland (GISP) viser. I samme artikkel vises det at det ikke er sammenheng mellom utslipp av CO2 og årlige CO2 endringer i atmosfæren.
Humlum et al. stemmer med naturloven om absorbsjon av gasser i væsker (Henry-loven) og biologisk aktivitet, mens drivhusteorien til IPCC ikke gjør det.
Faktisk viser bare til antagelser
Faktisk.no viser videre til alle rapporter fra IPCC, men IPCC antar, med en viss sannsynlighet, at CO2 utslipp skal føre til global oppvarming og fremtidig klimakrise. Motrapportene til det ikke-statlige klimapanelet (NIPCC) reiser sterk tvil om disse antagelsene.
Ensidighet og alarmisme
Som «sannhetsvitne» har faktisk.no hentet inn Benestad fra Meteorologisk Institutt, som viser til sin egen artikkel hvor bløffen om 97 % av klimaforskerne er enige gjentas.
Faktisk.no har kun hentet sin informasjon fra klimaalarmister. De er således klart ensidige i klimasaken. Det viser at faktisk.no er en partisk aktør for klimahysterikerne, og ikke noen nøytral instans. Faktisk.no kunne ha kontaktet Klimarealistenes Vitenskapelige Råd, og fått korrigerende informasjon.
Konklusjon
Denne gjennomgangen av «faktisk»-artikkelen bekrefter nok en gang at klimaalarmistene med IPCC i spissen ikke har holdbare bevis for at CO2 utslipp skal føre til farlig global oppvarming og klimakrise.
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