by
https://www.klimarealistene.com/2021/12/03/global-temperatur-november-2021/
Global temperatur november 2021
- desember 3, 2021
- 22:00
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Roy Spencer, Temperatur
Temperaturdata for november fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur (TLT) for november er med 0,08 o C kraftig ned fra forrige måned, i det femte året med global nedkjøling. Pausen i signifikant global oppvarming som er beskrevet i FNs klimapanels siste hovedrapport fra 2013 er fortsatt reell. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer beregning av klima. For informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña), se Klimanytt120.
UAH temperaturdata fra troposfæren
UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», som publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1991-2020. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, og av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. November 2021 er med (0,08 o C) kraftig ned fra forrige måneds (0,37 o C).
- Nordlige halvkule klart ned til 0,11 o C, fra 0,46 o C forrige mnd.
- Sydlige halvkule noe ned til 0,06 o C, fra 0,27 o C forrige mnd.
- Tropene noe ned til 0,14 o C, fra 0,33 o C forrige mnd.
- USA48 klart ned til 0,50 o C, fra 0,84 o C forrige mnd.
- Arktis kraftig ned til -0,42 o C, fra 0,63 o C forrige mnd.
- Australia klart ned til -0,29 o C, fra 0,06 o C forrige mnd.
Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære (du kan se UAH-temperatur for hver måned siden 1979 her), men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære.
Temperaturtrender
Trend i global temperatur kan beregnes på flere måter. Dr. Spencer bruker oppvarmingstrenden i UAH-observasjonene i troposfæren siden januar 1979, uten hensyn til trendskiftet i 1998, og får 0,14o C pr tiår (0,12o C over hav og 0,18o C over land).
Klimapanelets hovedrapport fra 2013/14 oppgir trenden i observasjonene etter det observerte trendskiftet, basert på bakkemålt temperatur (WG1AR5, kap 11, side 1010): «It may also be compared with recent rates in the observational record (e.g., ~0.26°C per decade for 1984–1998 and ~0.04°C per decade for hiatus period 1998–2012».
Tysklands kanskje mest framtredende klimaforsker Hans von Storch, uttalte i et intervju med Der Spiegel i 2013 om temperaturtrenden: «In fact, the increase over the last 15 years was just 0.06 degrees Celsius (0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) — a value very close to zero».
Med novemberdataene er vi tilbake i dette beskrevne pauseintervallet, etter at to klare La Niña episoder midlertidig tok observasjonene i en litt varmere retning. Med mindre det kommer en korreksjon opp i en enkelt måned, så skal vi videre ned i alle de neste 4-6 månedene.
Mens man i klimaindustrien tolker alle observasjoner som et tegn på at menneskets utslipp styrer klima, og gjerne korrigerer observasjonene så de passer til enda varmere politiserte klimamodeller, så søker man i vitenskapen etter den lange klimatrenden, uten forstyrrende utslag fra vulkaner eller de kraftigste El Niño/La Niña episodene.
Figuren under fra prof. Solheim (se KN294 for bredere bakgrunn) med UAH-data til og med februar 2021 viser hva man da kan se i en enkel analyse, en trend på 0,02 grader pr tiår. I likhet med IPCC-trenden på 0,04 C pr tiår, for lite til å være statistisk signifikant.
Ser man bort fra aktører i klimaindustrien som ifølge Von Storch oppfører seg mest som et presteskap på prekestolen, så er det på tide nå å ta konsekvensen av at Klimapanelet har feilet i sine påstander om global oppvarming. Det er intet i dataene som tyder på at denne kloden vil nå 1,5C-nivået vist i figuren.
Forhåpentligvis vil dette fremstå enda klarere for litt flere mennesker når vinteren er over og vi kan observere effekten på temperaturene.
ENSO-varsler
ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, det er ikke CO2. ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, og vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur. Likevel selger klimaindustrien varme utslag som menneskeskapt oppvarming fra fossile brensler, mens alle kalde utslag møtes med taushet eller beskrives som ekstremvær.
NOAA i USA modellerer sin ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i figuren under en fersk analyse (29. nov.) en sterk La Niña sesong gjennom vinteren på nordlige halvkule. For våren (mars-mai) oppgir NOAA 50 % sjanse for fortsatt La Niña.
Vinteren er her
Som vanlig i media er det lite omtale av kulderekorder rundt omkring, med mindre det kan selges som klimakrise. Men her er et unntak fra Barents Observer, som viser til at det i løpet av weekenden kan bli så kaldt som 40 kuldegrader nord i Finland, tradisjonelt kjent som Lappland. Yr.no indikerer 33-35 kuldegrader i det indre av Finnmark tidlig neste uke, noe som er normalt i Finnmark på denne tiden av året.
For værdata i Norge er det best å holde seg unna NRK, de vrir og vrenger, manipulerer og utelater. Følg heller med på VÆRSTAT, hvor Ole Østlid stadig utvider med ny statistikk. Hans siste oppslag er om eksepsjonell kald luft over Svalbard, og hvordan dette forvirrer enkelte.
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