by
https://www.klimarealistene.com/2021/07/02/global-temperatur-juni-2021/
Global temperatur juni 2021
- juli 2, 2021
- 23:17
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Klimapolitikk, Roy Spencer, Temperatur
Vi har temperaturdata for juni fra UAH ved Dr. Roy Spencer. Globalt satellittmålt temperaturavvik fra gjennomsnittlig temperatur (TLT) for juni er med –0,01 o C lite ned fra forrige måned. Pausen i signifikant global oppvarming som er beskrevet i FNs klimapanels siste hovedrapport fra 2013 er fortsatt reell. Vi viser til januar måned (2019) for informasjon om hvordan FNs klimapanel redefinerer beregning av klima. For informasjon om værfenomenet ENSO (El Niño og La Niña), se Klimanytt120.
UAH temperaturdata fra troposfæren
UAH står for «University of Alabama Huntsville», som publiserer månedlig avvik fra et gjennomsnitt av global temperatur for referanseperioden 1991-2020. Dette er ett av fem globale datasett for temperatur, og av mange regnet for datasettet med høyest kvalitet. Juni 2021 er med (-0,01 o C) lite ned fra forrige måneds (0,08 o C).
- Nordlige halvkule noe opp til 0,30 o C, fra 0,14 o C forrige mnd.
- Sydlige halvkule klart ned til -0,32 o C, fra 0,03 o C forrige mnd.
- Tropene litt ned til -0,14 o C, fra 0,06 o C forrige mnd.
- USA48 kraftig opp til 1,44 o C, fra -0,41 o C forrige mnd.
- Arktis klart opp, til 0,63 o C, fra -0,04 o C forrige mnd.
- Australia klart ned til -0,76 o C, fra 0,02 o C forrige mnd.
Dataene her er fra lavere troposfære, men interesserte finner data hos UAH også for Mid-troposfæren, tropopausen og lavere stratosfære. Dr. Spencer kommenterer måneden med at USA hadde høyeste junitall, mens Antarktis hadde nest laveste.
Temperaturtrend
Dette med trend er et tema som de troende elsker å kommentere, med henvisning til Dr. Spencers tall, lineær varmetrend siden januar 1979 på +0.14 C/tiår (+0.12 C/tiår over hav, og +0.18 C/tiår over). Da hopper man lite elegant over FNs klimapanel som bekrefter i siste hovedrapport opphøret («hiatus») i global oppvarming fra 1998. Det har altså funnet sted et trendskifte rett før tusenårsskiftet, og Klimapanelet gir oss også tallene, som enkelte ikke liker: WG1AR5, kap 11, side 1010: «It may also be compared with recent rates in the observational record (e.g., ~0.26°C per decade for 1984–1998 and ~0.04°C per decade for hiatus period 1998–2012»
Interessant her er at statistisk usikkerhet i observasjonene er større enn den gjenværende trenden, som da sannsynligvis representerer støy. Det tier klimapanelet om, pussig nok. Klimapanelets tall er for bakkeobservert temperatur, men flere analytikere inklusive prof. Ross McKitrick har vist at opphøret av signifikat oppvarming også fant sted i ulike høyder i troposfæren, men ikke samtidig alle steder.
Det er derfor interessant når professor Jan-Erik Solheim i vedlegget til Klimanytt 294 (kan leses i sin helhet her) har følgende kommentar til sin figur 6, gjengitt her:
Trenden i oppvarmingen blir altså mer og mer bagatellmessig med de nye tallene, 0,02 °C pr tiår, med samme usikkerhetsintervall. Det er i beste fall et syltynt grunnlag for symbolske men kostbare klimatiltak.
ENSO-varsler
ENSO står for «El Niño Southern Oscillation» og består av to faser av den betydeligste havstrømmen på vår klode, et værfenomen i Stillehavet som gir varmeutveksling mellom hav og atmosfære; El Niño (avvik over 0,5 C) hvor varmt overflatevann avgir varme til atmosfæren med vanndampens konveksjon, og La Niña (avvik under -0,5 C) hvor kaldere overflatevann bidrar til lavere atmosfærisk temperatur. Det er solinnstrålingen og jordvarme nedenifra som bidrar til endret havtemperatur, det er ikke CO2. ENSO -fenomenet påvirker ikke global temperatur varig, og vanligvis ser vi over tid en retur til normal temperatur.
NOAA i USA modellerer i sin ENSO status for SST (temperatur på havoverflaten), i en fersk analyse (28. juni) på en svak La Niña sesong fra senhøsten og gjennom vinteren på nordlige halvkule. La Niña-sesongen vi meldte om i april, men som ble borte i mai, er altså tilbake igjen. Men hva skjer når høsten kommer?
Meteorologene i Australia melder nøytrale forhold i tropisk del av Stillehavet (sydlige halvkule). De viser i en analyse 22. juni til at de fleste internasjonale klimamodeller viser nøytrale forhold med langsom nedkjøling av havtemperatur de neste seks månedene.
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