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https://www.klimarealistene.com/2022/01/21/fns-klimapanels-siste-rapport-er-ikke-troverdig/
FNs klimapanels siste rapport er ikke troverdig
- januar 21, 2022
- 15:00
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Drivhuseffekten, John Christy, Klimamodeller, Sjette Hovedrapport AR6, Sol
Forfattet av sivilingeniør Petter Tuvnes
Svært få leser rapportene til FNs klimapanel IPCC. Noen leser oppsummeringen i SPM (Summary for Policy Makers, 42 sider), men ytterst få AR6 WG1 «The Physical Science Basis» på nesten 4000 sider. I denne artikkelen er noen av de faktorer som IPCC selv legger stor vekt på vurdert.
Temperaturutvikling
Allerede i SPM, er det grunn til å tvile på sakligheten og objektiviteten til IPCC. De politisk (!) oppnevnte forfatterne av SPM har tatt inn en ny versjon av den diskrediterte ”hockeykøllekurven” som viser at det ikke har vært varmere de siste 2000 år på jorden enn nå. (Figur SPM.1, norsk versjon publisert av Miljødirektoratet).
Denne kurven er fra bare en studie (PAGES 2k), og flere av studiens forfattere har protestert på bruken av den. (Red.am: Protestert har også flere av IPCCs ekspertkommentatorer gjort, se lenket tekst her, forfattet av en tysk ekspertkommentator, oversatt til engelsk av NTZ. Dette førte til at det ble besluttet å ikke bruke figuren. Men i siste liten, og bak ryggen på de som besluttet å ikke bruke figuren, har noen tatt den i bruk likevel).
Studien er blitt sterkt kritisert, ikke minst av de som avslørte juks med den første hockeykølla til M. Mann (Steve McIntyre). IPCC har plukket ut denne ene studien og ignorert flere hundre andre forskningsrapporter (her, lenke til 46 studier) som viser at det må ha vært varmere og dermed bedre klima tidligere, f.eks. i middelalderen (vikingetiden) da de dyrket korn på Grønland. Det er det for kaldt til nå.
(Red.anm: Også IPCCs 1990-rapport stadfestet at det var varmere i en lang periode i Middelalderen.
Hovedrapporten fra 1990 sier følgende om denne middelalderske varmeperioden:
This period of widespread warmth is notable in that there is no evidence that it was accompanied by an increase of greenhouse gases
IPCC WG1 Rapporten, 1990, side 202
Modeller
I AR6 WG1 presenteres en ny modell som viser god overensstemmelse med målt temperatur akkurat nå i 2021, Box 4.1 Figure 1. Modellen projiserer en økt global temperatur på mellom 2 og 4,5 °C i år 2100 sammenlignet med årene 1850 -1900. Det er for tidlig å si om denne nye modellen er riktig, men tidligere modeller har vist seg å projisere for høy temperaturutvikling (Dr. John Christy, UAH, 2021). Se Figur fra John Christy som viser avvik mellom modeller og målt temperatur i atmosfærens såkalte «hot spot» område over tropene.
Et sentralt punkt og ”bevis” for at økning av plantenæringen CO2 har ført til unormal global oppvarming er det såkalte fingeravtrykket av oppvarming i Troposfæren over tropene, benevnt «hot spot». Målinger med værballonger har tidligere vist at denne «hot spot» ikke finnes som påstått. (Red.anm. Se også KN 197).
Men nå mener IPCC å ha påvist den, illustrert i IPCC AR6 WG1 Figure TS.10, page TS-117.
Figuren viser en dramatisk rødfarget atmosfære, med en oppvarming i «hot spot» over tropene på ca. 0,4 °C per decade. Dette stemmer ikke med figuren til Christy, over, hvor oppvarmingen bare har vært 0,16 °C per decade. Fargebruken i figuren er bevisst dramatisk villedende. I teksten som omhandler figuren innrømmer IPCC at modeller har vært overdrevet: «There is medium confidence that most CMIP5 and CMIP6 models overestimate the observed warming in the upper tropical troposphere over the period 1979–2014, in part because they overestimate tropical SST warming.»
Den nye modellen ser ikke ut til å være bedre.
Dr. Judith Curry har gjennomgått AR6 WG1-rapporten, hun er tidligere professor og leder for «Earth and Atmospheric Sciences ved Georgia Institute of Technology». Hun ble mobbet ut av stillingen etter at hun ble mer og mer skeptisk til klimaalarmismen til IPCC. Dr. Curry har nå egen konsulentvirksomhet.
Slutt for klimamodellenes hegemoni
Dr. Curry kommenterer her spesielt de modeller som rapporten er full av, og som skal føre til uakseptabel global oppvarming og klimaproblemer i fremtiden i følge IPCC. Merk at IPCC selv ikke bruker ord som klimakrise eller lignende om verken nåværende eller fremtidig klima. Dr. Curry mener at modellene har for liten oppløsning i de enkelte 3-dimensjonale celler som atmosfæren er delt inn i til å fange opp viktige klimapåvirkende faktorer som skyer og lokal solinnstråling. Det er derfor stor usikkerhet knyttet til modellene, og de bør ikke ha så stor betydning som tidligere for politiske beslutninger, mener Dr. Curry. Hittil har de fleste modeller skutt langt over mål når det gjelder å projisere global temperatur.
Ekstremvær
Ekstremværekspert professor Dr. Roger Pielke jr. har også gransket AR6 WG1. Han har også funnet ut at det ikke er grunn til å bruke ord som krise eller «code red» (brukt av FN-sjef Guterres) om nåværende og fremtidige klimautsikter. Det ekstreme scenariet som IPCC så som mest sannsynlig i 2013 (rapport AR5) er nå vurdert til å ha liten sannsynlighet, en utrolig beroligende endring på så kort tid siden AR5-rapporten, og som ikke har blitt fremhevet av media, mener Pielke. IPCC har systematisk gått gjennom en stor liste over ekstremværfenomener i den detaljerte AR6-rapporten.
Resultatene deres er ganske overraskende: Flom, orkaner, tropiske sykloner, meteorologiske og hydrologiske tørker er ikke hyppigere. Heller ikke tornadoer, hagl, lyn eller sterk vind er hyppigere. Imidlertid er hetebølger litt hyppigere, det samme er ekstrem nedbør, og det er to andre typer tørke, nemlig landbruks- og økologisk tørke, som har økt. Pielke kritiserer at det er for lett for aktivister og media å gripe tak i ekstreme hendelser (som unøyaktig oppsummert i SPM), men på et tidspunkt må man si at objektiv vitenskap og dens kommunikasjon er viktig i denne saken. Det er liten grunn til bekymring når det gjelder ekstremvær.
Solens betydning
IPCC hevder nå i AR6-rapporten at solen har hatt null inflytelse på den globale oppvarmingen vi hatt siden år 1750 (AR6 WG1 Figure 7.6, p. 7-177). Solens påvirkning (forcing) har vært negativ på -0,02 W/m2 , (usikkerhet -0,08 til 0,06). Det er sterkt avvikende fra et hundretalls forskningsrapporter som viser at forskjellige måter solen varierer på og påvirker global temperatur på, hovedsaklig er årsak til mild og gunstig oppvarming, og som IPCC neglisjerer.
I tillegg til total solinnstråling (TSI) har man store variasjoner i UV-stråling som trenger dypest ned i havet (opp til 100 % endring), endring i solflekker som har betydning for partikler fra solen og solvind. Slike effekter kan ha stor påvirkning på skyer og dermed hvor mye av TSI (total solinnstråling) som når jordoverflaten. Se GWPF rapport 33, 2019, av Henrik Svensmark.
Som nevnt er heller ikke IPCC-modellene detaljerte nok til å inkludere skyvariasjoner.
Alt fra ingen til all oppvarming siden 1900 kan ha vært forårsaket av solen mener de 23 forskerne bak rapporten til Connolly et. al 2021 (deriblandt Humlum og Solheim fra KVR): «How much has the sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate.»
IPCC har undervurdert denne usikkerheten ved bastant å påstå null inflytelse fra solen. Akkurat det tilbakeviser Connolly et al. IPCC virker forutinntatt og upålitelig, mens Connolly et al. anbefaler: «Recommendation 1. We urge researchers who are genuinely interested in trying to answer the question posed by the title of this paper to consider a wide range of TSI estimates and not just ones that agree with the researchers’ prior beliefs or expectations». En klar kritikk av den politiske ensidige rapporten til IPCC.
CO2 økning
En viktig årsak til at IPCC kan hevde at solen ikke har hatt noen inflytelse er at de mener at all øking av CO2 etter begynnelsen av den industrielle æra, fra ca. 280 ppm (milliondeler) til 410 ppm nå, skyldes menneskeskapte utslipp. Dette utgangspunktet for alarmismen til IPCC er sterkt imøtegått av Harde og Salby i artikkelen «What Controls the Atmospheric CO2 Level?» publisert i Science of Climate Change Vol.1 No.1 – August 2021. Harde og Salby finner at: «The controlling influence is not anthropogenic emission». Maksimum CO2 fra menneskeskapte utslipp kan være opptil 34 % av de siste ca. 100 ppm som er tilført atmosfæren, men kan godt være mindre.
Andre forskere har med nye isotopanalyser vist at i 2018 var bare 12 % (48 ppm) av de totalt 405 ppm CO2 i luften kommet fra forbruk av fossil energi (organic energy), og konkluderer med at det er «much too low to be the cause of global warming.» (Skrable et al. ,2022.)
IPCC har også ignorert nærmere 140 andre forskningsartikler som finner at CO2 har minimal påvirkning på global temperatur. Da faller utgangspunktet til IPCC sammen som et korthus. IPCC burde lære av av Ibsens Peer Gynt, 4. akt: Hvor udgangspunktet er galest, blir tidt resultatet orginalest.
Drivhuseffekten
Siden AR5 rapporten i 2013 har IPCC endret definisjonen av drivhuseffekten, som beskrevet her.
Den nye definisjonen av drivhuseffekten (GHE) svekker i betydelig grad forestillingen om at våre utslipp av CO2 skal føre til skadelig global oppvarming eller klimakrise.
Konklusjon
I AR6-rapporten har IPCC redusert anslaget til max temperaturøking ved dobling av CO2 , og også nedjustert faren for ekstremvær. På tross av dette opprettholder IPCC advarsler om skadelig global oppvarming og klimaendringer (FN-sjef Guterres «code red»). Det må de fordi ellers ville hele klimaskremsels-narrativet falle sammen som et korthus, og IPCC-tilhengerne har investert alt for mye prestisje og penger til å innrømme at klimaet slett ikke er så ille. Vi lever faktisk i den beste klimaperioden siden den varme middelalderen. Hvor er klimakrisen?
Denne begrensede gjennomgangen av noen viktige tema viser at dataene til IPCC ikke er konsistente, og der det er diskrepans så velger IPCC konsekvent de data som styrker deres politisk bestemte forutinntatthet om menneskeskapt global oppvarming og klimaendringer i oppsummeringsrapporten SPM (summary for policy makers). Det er ingen grunn til å ta IPCC alvorlig når man kan stille spørsmål ved så grunnleggende ting som solpåvirkningen, modeller og databruk. Der virker ikke IPCC å være troverdig.
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