26. December 2024
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FNs klimapanel feiltolker sol- og klimadata

scientist dubietasby scientist dubietas

 

FNs klimapanel feiltolker sol- og klimadata

Forfattet av Ole Humlum, professor emeritus, Univ. i Oslo og Jan-Erik Solheim, professor emeritus, Norges Arktiske Universitet UiT. Begge er medlemmer av Klimarealistenes Vitenskapelige Råd.

En global forskergruppe har publisert en rapport som viser at vi vet for lite om årsakene til klimaendringer til å kunne konkludere med at klimagassene er så viktige som FNs klimapanel forutsetter. Vår forskning gir et resultat som ikke stemmer med konklusjoner fra FNs klimapanel som bygger på ufullstendige og gale temperaturdata og manglende forståelse av solas utstråling. Påstander om menneskers sterke påvirkning av jordas klima er ikke tilstrekkelig begrunnet.

Den vitenskapelige rapporten «How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate.» er akseptert for publikasjon i juni i tidsskriftet «Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics» (23 eksperter fra 14 land, se nederst for lenke og full referanse) tilsier at konklusjonene til FNs klimapanel om at klimaendringene i all hovedsak skyldes menneskelig virksomhet er svakt begrunnet. Denne fagfellevurderte rapporten beregner det menneskelige bidraget til mindre enn 0,21°C pr hundre år, hvilket nesten ikke er målbart. Dette skiller seg klart fra Klimapanelet som konkluderer med at Sola ikke har hatt noen virkning på klimaet de siste 100-150 år.

Det meste av den energien som finnes i jordas atmosfære kommer fra Sola. Det har lenge vært kjent at endringer i «total solutstråling» (TSI), eller den mengde energi mottatt fra Sola i løpet av de siste hundreårene, kan ha bidratt vesentlig til de seneste tiders klimaendringer.

Solforskningen viser solas sterke påvirkning

Forskerne sammenligner her i alt 16 forskjellige estimater av strålingsvariasjoner fra sola, inklusive data som brukes av Klimapanelet. Disse kobles sammen med 26 forskjellige estimater av temperaturvariasjoner på jordas nordlige halvkules landområder siden 1850 (sortert i fem kategorier), inklusive datasett brukt av Klimapanelet. Grunnen til at rapporten fokuserer på nordlige halvkule er at her finnes lengere og fyldigere dataserier enn for den sørlige halvkule. Men vi antar at våre resultater er globalt gyldige.

I venstre figurdel antar IPCC klima styres mest av mennesket, mens solforskerne i høyre del antar Sola styrer mest.

Vår undersøkelse viser at forskere kommer til motsatte konklusjoner om årsaken til de observerte klimavariasjoner, avhengig av hvilke datasett som brukes. Som eksempel viser i figuren ovenfor grafene på venstre side hvordan hele temperaturutviklingen kan forklares ved menneskelig aktivitet (CO2-utslipp etc.) hvis temperaturserier som inkluderer temperaturer målt i byer og tettsteder (særlig på flyplasser) brukes sammen med serier som viser beskjedne variasjoner i solutstråling. De menneskeskapte bidragene blir da 0,84°C per hundre år og de naturlige bidrag fra sol og vulkaner omtrent null.

Dette kan sammenlignes med grafene på høyre side som viser at mesteparten av temperaturøkningen skyldes sol og vulkaner dersom vi bruker temperaturdata fra målestasjoner utenfor byer og tettsteder sammen med dataserier med større variasjoner i solutstrålingen. Det menneskelige bidraget er her beregnet til mindre enn 0,21°C pr hundre år, hvilket er nesten ikke målbart.

Klimapanelet: mennesket styrer klima

I neste og 6. rapport fra FNs-klimapanel (2021/2022) brukes dataserier som vist til venstre i figuren, med målestasjoner fra byer og tettsteder i hele verden, sammen med serier som viser liten eller ingen virkning av Sola. I denne rapporten unnlater forfatterne å fortelle om forskning som viser at temperaturen stiger langsommere utenom byer og tettsteder og at det er forskere som har konkludert med at Sola varier langt mer enn de måleseriene Klimapanelet bruker, – samtidig som det hevdes at det er konsensus blant forskerne om at Klimapanelets konklusjoner er riktige.

Konklusjon

Ettersom Klimapanelet ikke er i stand til å gi en riktig fremstilling av forskningen på feltet, må panelets konklusjoner karakteriseres som upålitelig. Mer forskning er nødvendig for å oppklare årsaken til de forskjellige tolkingene og finne en begrunnelse for hvilke av tolkningene som er mest korrekte. Naturvitenskapelig forskning avgjøres ikke ved konsensus, men ved observasjoner og eksperimenter som ikke lar seg motbevise.

Vår konklusjon er at Klimapanelets påstander om menneskers sterke påvirkning av jordas klima ikke er tilstrekkelig begrunnet.

Full referanse til rapporten (preprint versjon):
R. Connolly, W. Soon, M. Connolly, S. Baliunas, J. Berglund, C. J. Butler, R. G. Cionco, A. G. Elias, V. M. Fedorov, H. Harde, G. W. Henry, D. V. Hoyt, O. Humlum, D. R. Legates, S. Luning, N. Scafetta, J.-E. Solheim, L. Szarka, H. van Loon, V. M. Velasco Herrera, R. C. Willson, H. Yan and W. Zhang (2021). How much has the Sun influenced Northern Hemisphere temperature trends? An ongoing debate. Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics.

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