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Ekstremvær og vitenskap-2
- Kategorier: Klimapolitikk
- Stikkord: Ekstremvær, tørke
Klimanytt nr. 327. Redaktør: Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Forfattet av Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Dette er del 2 med forklaringen på årets hetebølge. Del 1 var Klimanytt 326. Grundige vitenskapelige studier forklarer årets europeiske tørke som et naturlig fenomen. Variasjoner i transport av energi fra ekvator mot polene gir mye større påvirkning enn IPCCs CO2-hypotese, men inngår ikke i deres modeller.
Medienes ‘megaomtale’ av sommerens kraftige europeiske tørke er omtalt i KN 326. Her utdypes en av de dominerende mekanismer for naturlige klimavariasjoner. Meteorologisk institutts tidligere fagsjef, Asbjørn Moene, bygget sine klimaforedrag på naturens transportmekanismer av energi mellom ekvator og polområder (bl.a. NAO/AO, AMO, SAM).
I 1928 beskrev G. T. Walker naturlige svingninger i vindretningen i Atlanterhavet. Den Nord-Atlantiske Oscillasjon (NAO, KN 139) gir kjente værtyper i svære landområder på begge sider og langt inn i Russland. Hovedmekanismen er sterke jetstrømmer rundt 10 km oppe i atmosfæren. De beveger seg periodisk i en stram struktur langs breddegradene som vist i venstre figur på den nordlige halvkule (NH) og tilsvarende på sørlige halvkule (SH). Ved høytrykk på sørsiden holdes kalde og varme luftmasser på plass i sine respektive områder. I andre perioder slakker jetstrømmen av og gir store buktninger med høyere trykk på den arktiske siden. Kaldere luft trenger langt sørover og varmluft nordover i andre buktninger som vist i høyre figur.
NAO har en 60-70-års syklus. Golfstrømmen har liknende syklus, men er anslagsvis 15 år ‘forskjøvet’. Oppvarmingen 1850-80, 1910-40 og 1975-2005 er varme deler av syklusene. Nedbør som følge av endret vindmønster er omtalt i KN 188.
Varmetransport fra ekvator til pol
Solens energibidrag avtar mot polene og påvirker sesongtemperaturene i de ulike årstider med flere grader C slik figuren viser mottatt energi til jordens overflate langs breddegrader (blå kurve) og langbølget utstråling fra kloden (rød), begge i W/m2 langs vertikal akse. I områdene fra 40 grader mot polene er temperaturen og tilhørende utstråling større enn solvarmen (grønt) fordi energi transporteres fra ekvator (gult). Forskjellen i energimengden er hele 110 W/m2 ved polene. Energien transporteres med havstrømmer og vinder og påvirkes av endringer i solinnstråling, solspekteret (UV-andel), magnetfelt, kosmisk stråling, skydannelse, jordrotasjon etc. Til sammenligning er IPCC-hypotesens beregnede effekt av økt CO2 snaut 2 W/m2, kun 1-2 % som er langt mindre enn usikkerheten i beregningene.
I perioder når jetstrømmen bukter seg, vil kald og varm luft føres henholdsvis sørover og nordover i ulike soner i langt større grad enn ved stram jetstrøm. Dette kan gi vel så stor mulighet for ekstreme perioder (kulde, varme, nedbør) som når jetstrømmen er markant og holder ‘på plass’ arktisk luft i sitt område så vel som varmluft ved lavere breddegrader.
FNs FAO viktige studium
Disse forhold ble også påpekt i rapporten fra FAO i 2001 (KN 180). Figurene (vist i lenken til KN180, og klikk på figuren for forstørring) viser i perioden 1850-2000 en meget god sammenheng mellom global middeltemperatur (mørk bred linje dT) og jordrotasjon (invertert, sirkler, tynn linje) øverst og fordeling av vinder langs breddegrader eller lengdegrader i en 60-70-års syklus på det Eur-asiatiske kontinent. Dominerende vinder langs breddegradene henger sammen med lav jordrotasjon og høyere globale temperaturer, mens dominerende meridonale vinder henger sammen med høy jordrotasjon og lavere global temperatur. Disse endringene inntrer ca. 6 år etter at jordrotasjonen endrer seg.
Variasjonene leder til en rekke omfattende, kjente værfenomener i ulike regioner og legges til grunn for værmeldinger og langtidsvarsel. NAO har en vel 60-års syklus med vel 30 år varmere og vel 30 år kaldere perioder. Golfstrømmen har liknende sykluser påvist langt tilbake 8000 år i Arktis (Fauerskov Nielsen et al 2012), men er anslagsvis 15 år ‘forskjøvet’ i forhold til NAOs ca 60-års syklus. Oppvarmingsperiodene 1850-80, 1910-40 og 1975-2005 henger sammen med stramme jetstrømmer. Liknende fenomen finnes også i Stillehavet (PDO), Antarktis osv.
Koblingen til jetstrømmene er tydelig, og hetebølger med varmluft sørfra kan derfor i prinsippet være vel så hyppig i globalt kjøligere perioder som i de varme. Observasjoner gir svaret.
Vitenskap og tørken i Vest-Europa
Et omfattende studium basert på 199 målestasjoner av nedbør i Vest-Euoropa 1851- 2018 viser ingen langtidstendens. Endringer i kortere perioder forekommer, men de senere tiår er overgått av tidligere perioder slik det fremgår av figuren (SPI = Standard Precipitation Index over 3 mnd (øverst) og 12 mnd (nederst) angitt i % av studert område (kraftig = mørk, moderat = rød og mild = gul). Målingene ble avsluttet i 2018, men årets kraftige tørkeperiode vil ikke kunne endre det statistiske helhetsbilde.
Forfatterne påpeker betydning av lange tidsserier for riktige konklusjoner.
Dette står i motsetning til Cicero-forsker Bjørn H. Samset som hevdet at årets tørke viste at vi måtte sette i gang med CO2-tiltak raskt. I de første 100 år viser studien ingen tendens og domineres av naturlige variasjoner og påvirkes ikke etter 1950 da menneskeskapte CO2-utslipp gradvis begynte å øke nevneverdig. Det skulle tilsi at i dette området er mekanismene for nedbør/tørke ikke menneskeskapte, men domineres av naturlige prosesser.
Tørke domineres av tre faktorer: nedbør, avrenning (hydrologi) og jordfuktighet. De to siste påvirkes i variabel grad av andre faktorer inklusive menneskelig aktivitet og tiltak.
Roger Pielke jr. er en av de internasjonalt ledende eksperter på ekstremeffekter, ekspertkommentator for IPCC-rapporter og vitne ved høringer i US-Congress. Han har startet en serie «Hva mediene ikke forteller deg» der han korrigerer feilaktige mediepåstander om ekstremeeffekter som ikke bygger på offisielle data. Han kommenterer studien også i lys av IPCCs siste rapport 2021 som konkluderer med: «In areas of Western and Central Europe and Northern Europe, there is no evidence of changes in the severity of hydrological droughts (avrenning) since 1950». En annen studie av perioden 1969-2020 viser i sin helhet at det har vært liten endring i tørke-karakteristika i Europa i årene 1969-2018.
Konklusjon
«In Western and Central Europe – basically Atlantic France all the way to Moscow, north of the Mediterranean region and south of the North Sea region – the IPCC and the underlying peer reviewed research on which it assesses has concluded that drought has not increased». Alarmistene og medier er tatt med ‘buksene nede’. Ekstremvær domineres fremdeles av naturlige variasjoner.
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