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https://www.klimarealistene.com/2017/04/10/drivhuseffektens-historikk-co2-har-liten-effekt/
Drivhuseffektens historikk – CO2 har liten effekt
- april 10, 2017
- 23:06
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Klimafølsomhet
Klimanytt 194, av Ole Henrik Ellestad
Konferansen «Climate Dynamics» ved Princeton i 1955 ledet av legenden John von Neumann og med deltagelse av ledende atmosfærefysikere. De la liten vekt på CO2 etter 130 års sporadiske publikasjoner. CO2s betydning er skapt av grupperinger rundt beregningsmodeller selv om de ikke kan beregne klodens mange kompliserte prosesser. 40 milliarder dollar er brukt uten resultatbedring siden 1979.
FNs klimapanel IPCC søker å fremstille hypotesen om drivhuseffekten som en gammel, veletablert teori med CO2 i en sentral rolle. Men den har vært et sidespor og fikk ikke fotfeste før IPCC ble dannet i 1988 og fikk markedsført modellenes forenklede resultater i rapporter fra 1990. Det startet med at Fourier i 1824 observerte at luften i en beholder ble oppvarmet av sollys. At kjemiske stoffer kunne absorbere og emittere stråling var i prinsippet kjent. Tyndall fant i 1859 at gasser absorberte stråling fra en kobberplate og at luften ble varmere. Men oppvarmingen stoppet opp, og CO2 var en av de svakeste absorbenter.
Etter varmeperioden rundt 1880 publiserte Svante Arrhenius i 1896 at effekten av en dobling av CO2-konsentrasjonen fra ca 300 ppm til 600 ppm ville medføre en temperaturøkning på 5-6 o C. Men Knut Ångstrøm, professor i fysikk i Uppsala, viste ved eksperimenter at økningen bare var minimal. Arrhenius angret og publiserte et nytt arbeide i 1906 der effekten ved dobling var redusert til 1.5 o C (ikke sitert av IPCC). I 1909 publiserte R. W. Wood at drivhuseffekten skyldtes vegger og tak som hindret den oppvarmede luften i å unnslippe. Materialene hadde liten betydning. Etter global oppvarming 1915-40 publiserte G. S. Callendar i 1939 en moderat effekt fra CO2.
I 1951 konkluderte «US Meteorological Society» at CO2 ikke kunne være noen betydelig faktor ut i fra teorien om molekyler og infrarød stråling. Denne oppfatning var også fremherskende da de fremste atmosfærefysikere og meteorologer møttes til konferanse om «Dynamics of Climate» i 1955 under ledelse av John von Neumann, den legendariske datamaskinpionér som da ledet Princetons «Center for Advanced Studies» etter A. Einstein (Se bilde). Deltagere inkluderte de ledende innen feltet, bl.a. Lorenz og nordmennene Bjerknes og Eliassen. Drivhuseffekten og CO2 var bare representert med ett foredrag. De beste atmosfærefysikere og meteorologer i perioden 1950-80 fokuserte på andre faktorer – ikke CO2. Men R. Revelle utviklet nye teknikker for CO2-målinger som hadde foregått siden 1812.
Etter 1940 gikk kloden inn i en kaldere fase. World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) advarte i 1960-årene mot en kaldere klode og mulighetene for en ny Lille istid. The Times og Newsweek hadde forside om dette i midten av 1970-årene. Sovjet og Carter-administrasjonen adresserte temaet frem mot slutten av 1970-årene. Men verdens desiderte «klimatologguru», Hubert Lamb, skrev i FNs UNESCO Chronicle i september 1973 at i perioder steg temperaturen uten CO2-økning, og da den markante CO2-økningen kom etter 1945 ble kloden kaldere. Det måtte derfor være noe annet som dominerte. Det forelå mye viten, bl.a. solflekksykluser i 1803 og «Quasibienale Oscillation» (QBO) i 1970-årene. Et eksempel fra ett av bokkapitlene (1) om klima på en konferanse i 1974 om jordrotasjonens endringer: «vi er på randen til å forstå hvordan klimatiske endringer relaterer seg til forandringer i solen og andre egenskaper for jorden». I 1982 skrev Lamb boken «Climate History and the Modern World» som oppsummerer og er basis for den videreførte vitenskapen om klodens mange naturlige variasjoner.
Charney-rapporten konkluderte i 1979 ut i fra enkle beregningsmodeller med en mulig CO2-oppvarming på 1.5-4.5 o C ved dobling. Resultatene ble i 1980-årene særlig promotert av James Hansen, senere leder for NASA GISS. Men de mest toneangivende klimaforskere fortsatte studier av naturlige variasjoner inkludert teorier om endringer i gravitasjonskreftene, sol, vinder, havstrømmer, tidevann og jordrotasjon. Etter Brundtlandrapporten (1987) og etablering av IPCC i 1988 under sterk innflytelse av Margaret Thatcher, ble CO2 satt i «førersetet». Hovedkomiteen hadde i IPCCs 1995-rapport ingen preferanse for CO2-effekten, men Clintonadministrasjonen intervenerte, og sørget for at menneskeskapt påvirkning ‘var betydelig’ (KN 83). Det åpnet for Kyoto-avtalen. De mange alvorlige brudd på vitenskapelige prinsipper som: manglende «hot spot», «Hockeykølla», «Climategate», «Himalayagate», utflating av global middeltemperatur fra 1997 til nå, manipulasjoner av temperaturer i Antarktis mm påvirket ikke politikernes aksept av modellene.
Etter 38 års forskning til 40 milliarder dollar er beregningsresultatet ikke endret. Det stemmer fremdeles ikke med observasjonene, og IPCC har ingen troverdig forklaring på avvikene. Derimot publiserte FNs FAO en rapport i 2001 der de fant at endringer i global middeltemperatur samsvarte med endringer i jordrotasjonen. NIPCC-rapportene konkluderte at CO2s bidrag til drivhuseffekten er beskjedent, at IPCCs forsterkningseffekt fra endret vanndampmengde faktisk svekker CO2s allerede svake bidrag, og at naturlige variasjoner dominerer.
Det går mot slutten for IPCCs alarmerende CO2-hypotese. CO2s overdimensjonerte rolle er politikerskapt, kvasilegitimert gjennom den politiske organisasjonen IPCC og vulgærformidlet av media for å skaffe velgere til politikere som vender ryggen til vitenskapen.
Kilder
(1). J. Gribbin: Climate, the Earth’s Rotation and Solar Variations. In G.D. Rosenberg and S.K. Runcorn, Growth Rhythms and the History of the Earth’s Rotation, A. Wiley & Sons 1975.
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