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Ytring:
Det grønne skiftet er ugjennomførlig. Universitetsavisa.no
Det sies og snakkes mye om det såkalte «grønne skiftet» hvor verden i 2050 skal være fri for bruk av «fossil» energi, dvs. olje, gass og kull.
Det grønne skiftet vil aldri bli gjennomført fordi det er for ødeleggende for verdens økonomi og miljø, argumenterer Geir Hasnes i denne ytringen.. Foto: Privat
Geir HasnesUNIVERSITETSLEKTOR II, INSTITUTT FOR TEKNISK KYBERNETIKK, NTNU
PUBLISERT Tirsdag 02. februar 2021 – 16:07 SIST OPPDATERT Onsdag 10. februar 2021 – 13:53
Antallet vindturbiner i teksten kom feil ut. Det er nå rettet opp fra 263 millioner vindturbiner til 28,750 000 vindturbiner.
Jeg har derfor regnet på behovet for energikilder i 2050.
En ekstrapolering fra verdens energiforbruk siden 1980 gir et behov for 242 petawatt-timer i 2050, hvorav 193 petawatt-timer vil komme fra «fossile» energiformer. Ved å gå over til «fornybar» energi må vi kunne generere 22 terawatt kontinuerlig i 2050 for å erstatte «fossil» energibruk.
Starter vi i dag, 1. februar 2021, og skal være i mål 1. januar 2050, må det hver dag installeres 2,08 gigawatt kapasitet. (Merk at jeg ikke tar med ledig kapasitet for å ta unna effekt-topper da disse er vanskelige å beregne for hele verden. Man kan sikkert gange med to, og dette er altså minimumskrav.)
Setter vi opp vindturbiner på 2,5 megawatt med 40% kapasitetsfaktor betyr det at det må settes opp 2080 slike vindturbiner hver dag i 30 år. Disse må i tillegg ha backup i form av enorme batterier eller mer stabile kraftverk. Med en gjennomsnittlig levetid på 20 år må altså antallet dobles fra 2041 til 2050. Deretter – med utflating av energiforbruket i 2050 – må det tas ned og settes opp 2080 slike turbiner hver dag i all evighet.
Legger vi ut solpaneler, og bruker 10W pr kvadratmeter som sannsynlig produksjon, må vi dekke et område på 208 kvadratkilometer hver dag. Med en gjennomsnittlig levetid på 25 år må vi i 2046 doble antallet, og fra 2050 – igjen med antatt utflating av energibehovet – må vi fjerne og legg ut nye 208 kvadratkilometer solpaneler hver dag i all evighet.
Setter vi opp atomkraftverk med en gjennomsnittlig produksjon på 1 gigawatt, må det bygges to atomkraftverk hver dag fremover.
Fortsetter vi å bygge vannkraftverk, med størrelse i snitt som Alta-kraftverket som genererer 150 megawatt, må det bygges 14 slike kraftverk om dagen.
I dag finnes det 400-500 000 vindturbiner i verden. Vi trenger 28,750 000 vindturbiner hvis vind skal løse det grønne skiftet, frem til 2050. De vil alene dekke mer enn halve Norge. For å unngå turbulens opererer man med 5 ganger rotordiameter. Dette gir et areal på minst 3,7 millioner kvadratkilometer, så stort som India eller halve Australia.
I dag finnes det 440 atomkraftverk i verden. Vi trenger 21 000 atomkraftverk hvis disse skal løse det grønne skiftet.
I dag produserer ca 50 000 vannkraftverk 1,3 terawatt. Vi trenger da ca 650 000 vannkraftverk hvis disse skal løse det grønne skiftet.
Når det gjelder solpanelene vil disse måtte dekke et areal på størrelse med Saudi-Arabia, med tillegg for infrastruktur osv.
El-nettet verden over overfører i dag omkring 25 petawatt-timer pr år. Hvis el-nettet skal overføre 242 petawatt-timer må det tidobles over hele kloden.
Sementproduksjonen som også bidrar til CO2-økningen i atmosfæren, må nå økes betraktelig for å lage vannkraftverk og atomkraftverk samt baser for vindturbiner.
Energibruken for å fremstille disse fire fornybare kraftproduksjonsmidlene, vil være ufattelig. De er ikke regnet på her.
Det er heller ikke regnet på om det er nok sjeldne metaller i verden til å produsere alle disse kraftproduksjonsmidlene og batteriene som trengs.
Når det gjelder vannkraft er det tvilsomt at det finnes nok utnyttbart areal. Når det gjelder solkraft vil avfallsproblemet bli ufattelig. Når det gjelder vindkraft er det også et spørsmål om det er nok areal og avfallsproblemet vil bli enormt. Når det gjelder kjernekraft er det et spørsmål om det finnes nok uran.
En 2,5 megawatt vindturbin koster gjennom livsløpet omkring 4,65 millioner dollar. Disse vil koste 3,5 billioner dollar per år.
Kjernekraftverkene koster omkring 7,5 millarder dollar å bygge. De vil koste 5,4 billioner dollar per år. Fordelen med dem er at de varer 3-5 ganger så lenge som vindturbiner.
Norges bruttonasjonalprodukt ligger på 33. plass i verden. 99 land har mindre enn 10% av Norges BNP, hvorav 35 land har mindre enn 1% av Norges BNP. Hvor er pengene?
Fire land har mer enn ti ganger så stort BNP som Norge. Av disse fortsetter Kina å bygge kullkraftverk og Tyskland vil ikke ha kjernekraft og er fullt av vindturbiner allerede.
I all debatt om det «grønne skiftet» ser jeg ingen rasjonalitet i debatten omkring økonomi, logistikk, industrialisering, gruvedrift, og den generelle rasering av miljøet.
Det grønne skiftet er kort sagt ikke gjennomførbart. Det vil aldri bli gjennomført fordi det er for ødeleggende for verdens økonomi og miljø.
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