by
Bagatellmessig klimafølsomhet
- november 11, 2020
- 21:36
- Geir Aaslid
- Kategorier: Klimafølsomhet, Vitenskap, William Happer
Banebrytende forskning (Happer, Van den Beemt, Wijngaarden) har i det siste påpekt bagatellmessig klimafølsomhet. Dette betyr at klimapolitikken bare fører til avindustrialisering av Vest-Europa, økt arbeidsledighet og nedgangstider. Klimatiltak som ikke har mening selv om politikerne tror deres eget land har sin private atmosfære, framstår nå som selvutslettende politikk.
Klimafølsomhet under 0,2 grader C.
Professor Will Happer er muligens fysikeren som vet mest om vår atmosfære. I ny forskning har Happer og Wijngaarden gjort oppmerksom på at spekteret er mettet og at mer CO2 (og vanndamp) nesten ikke har effekt. En CO2-økning på 20 ppmv (0,002 %) kan gi økt temperatur på 0,07 grader, og legger vi til for de neste 40 og 80 ppmv, vil resten av doblingen fra førindustriell tid, til 560 ppmv, utgjøre 0,21 grader Celsius. Å komme dit med CO2-økning tar mer enn 100 år, og forutsetter at sola ikke bidrar til å kjøle ned havet som da suger til seg mer CO2 og at de ca 10 000 andre faktorene som påvirker klima ikke foretar seg noe som endrer regnestykket.
Men dette estimatet fra H&W er for skyfri himmel, og siden det meste av kloden (gjennomsnittet kan være 62 %) er dekket av skyer, så får vi en dempende tilbakekobling. Prof. Lindzen (MIT) pekte allerede i 2008 på at kjente dempende tilbakekoblinger (skyer og vanndamp) mer enn halverte den teoretiske temperatureffekten fra mer CO2.
Fysikken bak doblet CO2
Fysikeren Frans van den Beemt har ledet en lignende studie, men har begrenset seg til CO2-molekylets IR-aktivitet i troposfæren, og i tillegg tatt med effekten av 62 % gjennomsnittlig årlig skydekke. De har brukt HITRAN spektraldata og har kalkulert seg fram til en ekstra effekt på 1,33 W/m2 for doblet CO2 (fra 300 til 600 ppmv). Man antar 40-50% av dette stråler ut av atmosfæren og at 50-60% bidrar til økt overflatetemperatur. Dette fører i verste fall til 0,16 – 0.20 K i klimaforbedring (økt temperatur).
Forskerne konkluderer med at IPCCs anslag fra 2014 på 3,8 W/m2 og 1 Kelvin økt temperatur er en overdrivelse. Tatt i betraktning atmosfærens kompleksitet og de store temperaturforskjellene man ser rundt om på kloden så utgjør funnet av en temperaturøkning på 0,2 K en helt bagatellmessig økning.
Lavere og lavere klimafølsomhet
Dette er bare to av mange nyere forskergrupper som har regnet seg fram til lavere klimafølsomhet basert på observasjoner i atmosfæren.
Hermann Harde fant i 2013 en effekt på 2,6 W/m2 og økt temperatur på 0.3 K (klar himmel og Ts=288K med vanndampandel på 1.46% og en CO2 dobling fra 380 til 760 ppmv, skyer 50% ved 5km høydet).
Heinz Hug fant i 2012 0.2 K for CO2 dobling fra 200 til 400ppm.
Det er altså ingen observasjoner ute i atmosfæren som støtter påstandene om en kraftig eller farlig oppvarmng. Dette kommer utelukkende fra villedende klimamodeller og falske premisser som forsterkende tilbakekoblinger fra skyer og vanndamp. Kjente tilbakekoblinger viser seg i hovedsak å være svært små og i hovedsak dempende.
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