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Atmosfæretemperatur og CO2
Ny forskning studerer situasjonen, hva er årsak og hva er virkning? IPCC-leirens hypotese er at økt CO2 forårsaker økt temperatur, men denne studien fra Koutsoyiannis og Kundzewicz tar utgangspunkt i at det motsatte kan være tilfelle og ser først på paleoklimatiske fata og deretter på moderne data fra 1980-2019. Studiens fokus er på tidsaspektet (timing) og ikke på graden av endring.
Bakgrunn
Studien ser på forhistorien, fra Tyndall (1865), Den italienske meteorologen De Marchi (1895), Arrhenius (1896) og bemerker at de første eksperimentene både på vanndamp og CO2 ble utført av Eunice Newton Foote (1856). Allerede dengang var det klart at de to variablene CO2 og temperatur var tett knyttet sammen. Filosofisk ser studien på temaet som et klassisk høna-og-egget problem, og viser til Plutarch som tidligst drøftet en slik årsakssammenheng (kausalitet er det fine ordet).
Vi har i 2020 på grunn av Covid-19 pandemien hatt de mest drastiske kutt i industrielle CO2-utslipp (rød stolpe til høyre i figuren under), uten at disse kuttene vises i målinger av atmosfærisk CO2-nivå ved Mauna Loa. Studien peker også på finanskrisen i 2008-2009 hvor det var klare reduksjoner i industrielle CO2-utslipp, uten at det lot seg spore i Mauna-Loa målingene (se Peters et al,)
Paleoklimatiske studier
I dag har vi samlet mye mer viten, spesielt fra paleoklimatiske studier. Denne studien viser til Schmidt et al (2010), som hevder at CO2s andel av IR-absorpsjon er 19% mens vanndamp og skyer står for 75 %. Redaksjonen innskyter at vanndampens dominans ble påpekt allerede på Arrhenius tid av Ångstrøm, så vanndampens rolle har vært kjent i mer enn 100 år, men nøyaktig hvor stor den dominerende effekten av vanndamp inklusive skyer er, fortsatt debatteres.
Årsak og virkning i Phanerozoic-epoken vises tydelig (Vostok-iskjerner) av studien fra Roe (2006), med sitatet «variations in atmospheric CO2 appear to lag the rate of change of global ice volume. This implies only a secondary role for CO2—variations in which produce a weaker radiative forcing than the orbitally-induced changes in summertime insolation—in driving changes in global ice volume.»
En rekke studier støtter Roe, og angir en tidsavstand fra temperaturendring til CO2-endring på 50 til 1000 år, basert på tidsperioden som er studert samt øvrige detaljer i studiene. Ingen studier peker på motsatt mulighet.
CO2-nivå estimert fra iskjerneprøver har flere problemer:
Det har også kommet annen forskning (Massman og Frank 2006) som viser at CO2-nivået på 280 ppm IPCC-leiren benytter seg av bl.a. fra iskjerneprøvene er svært fantasifullt; de skriver konkret: «moderne CO2 konsentrasjon under hardpakket snø i skog og eng varierer fra 600-1800 ppm og nivået kan fluktuere med opptil 200 ppm på bare 4 dager.»
Når man observerer slike forhold i dag ser man problemene med IPCC-leirens bruk av CO2-estimater fra bl.a Vostok. Massmann og Frank støtter dermed Jaworowski, Segalstad, Ono (1992) på at iskjerneprøvene ikke kunne benyttes til å bestemme tidligere tiders CO2-nivå.
Moderne studier
Forskerne har sett på to moderne datasett for temperatur, UAH data for lavere troposfære, og CRUTEM som er landtemperatur, et felles prosjekt fra Met Office Hadley Centre og Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ved University of East Anglia.
Forskjellig trend i de to kurvene er ansett som irrelevant siden det er årsak og virkning man undersøker. Det er velkjent i klimaforskningen at global oppvarming er mye sterkere over land enn over hav og at bakkemålt temperatur er forurenset av et stigende antall termometre i urbane strøk, samt en sterkt varierende gjennomsnitts-avstand fra ekvator.
Det er i figuren under brukt fire datasett for atmosfærisk CO2, Mauna Loa, Barrow i Alaska, Sydpolen og et globalt gjennomsnitt. Som man ser i figuren er forskjellen gjennom året størst der det regionalt er mest fotosyntese.
Studien påpeker klart at man her (figuren under) ikke ser noen årsakssammenheng mellom CO2 og temperatur, fordi temperaturen går kaotisk opp og ned, mens CO2 viser en stabil årsvariasjon og en jevnt stigende kurve.
Kan man med statsitisk analyse vise at det er en årsakssammenheng den andre veien, fra T til CO2? Det kan man.
For de som interesserer seg for detaljene i studiens metodikk og detaljene i den statistiske analyse viser vi til selve studien. Tabell 1 fra studien er gjengitt her, den viser antall måneder før CO2-nivået reagerer på endret temperatur. Studien bruker et signifikansnivå på 1 %.
Konklusjon: T = årsak, CO2 = virkning
Resultatet av studien støtter hypotesen at begge kausalitetsretninger eksisterer, med T som årsak og CO2 som virkning klart dominerende, til tross for at motsatt retning hersker i media og i politikken, samt i IPCC-leiren. Studiens resultater viser at endring i CO2 følger etter endring i temperatur med ca 6 mnd på en månedsskala, eller ca ett år på en årsskala.
Studien viser også til at naturens biokjemiske utslipp av CO2 fra jordmonnet kan øke med høyere temperatur og at dette reiser flere interessante spørsmål. I siste setning påpeker forfatterne i et neppe utilsiktet spark til IPCC-leiren, at forskere i det 21. århundre burde være klar over at komplekse systemer motsetter seg forenklede forklaringer.
Redaksjonen påpeker at denne studien dermed kommer til samme konklusjon som Humlum, Stordahl og Solheim, som i 2013 publiserte en analyse av en noe kortere tidsserie (1980-2012).
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