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Atmosfæretemperatur og CO2
Ny forskning studerer situasjonen, hva er årsak og hva er virkning? IPCC-leirens hypotese er at økt CO2 forårsaker økt temperatur, men denne studien fra Koutsoyiannis og Kundzewicz tar utgangspunkt i at det motsatte kan være tilfelle og ser først på paleoklimatiske fata og deretter på moderne data fra 1980-2019. Studiens fokus er på tidsaspektet (timing) og ikke på graden av endring.
Bakgrunn
Studien ser på forhistorien, fra Tyndall (1865), Den italienske meteorologen De Marchi (1895), Arrhenius (1896) og bemerker at de første eksperimentene både på vanndamp og CO2 ble utført av Eunice Newton Foote (1856). Allerede dengang var det klart at de to variablene CO2 og temperatur var tett knyttet sammen. Filosofisk ser studien på temaet som et klassisk høna-og-egget problem, og viser til Plutarch som tidligst drøftet en slik årsakssammenheng (kausalitet er det fine ordet).
Vi har i 2020 på grunn av Covid-19 pandemien hatt de mest drastiske kutt i industrielle CO2-utslipp (rød stolpe til høyre i figuren under), uten at disse kuttene vises i målinger av atmosfærisk CO2-nivå ved Mauna Loa. Studien peker også på finanskrisen i 2008-2009 hvor det var klare reduksjoner i industrielle CO2-utslipp, uten at det lot seg spore i Mauna-Loa målingene (se Peters et al,)
Paleoklimatiske studier
I dag har vi samlet mye mer viten, spesielt fra paleoklimatiske studier. Denne studien viser til Schmidt et al (2010), som hevder at CO2s andel av IR-absorpsjon er 19% mens vanndamp og skyer står for 75 %. Redaksjonen innskyter at vanndampens dominans ble påpekt allerede på Arrhenius tid av Ångstrøm, så vanndampens rolle har vært kjent i mer enn 100 år, men nøyaktig hvor stor den dominerende effekten av vanndamp inklusive skyer er, fortsatt debatteres.
Årsak og virkning i Phanerozoic-epoken vises tydelig (Vostok-iskjerner) av studien fra Roe (2006), med sitatet «variations in atmospheric CO2 appear to lag the rate of change of global ice volume. This implies only a secondary role for CO2—variations in which produce a weaker radiative forcing than the orbitally-induced changes in summertime insolation—in driving changes in global ice volume.»
En rekke studier støtter Roe, og angir en tidsavstand fra temperaturendring til CO2-endring på 50 til 1000 år, basert på tidsperioden som er studert samt øvrige detaljer i studiene. Ingen studier peker på motsatt mulighet.
CO2-nivå estimert fra iskjerneprøver har flere problemer:
Det har også kommet annen forskning (Massman og Frank 2006) som viser at CO2-nivået på 280 ppm IPCC-leiren benytter seg av bl.a. fra iskjerneprøvene er svært fantasifullt; de skriver konkret: «moderne CO2 konsentrasjon under hardpakket snø i skog og eng varierer fra 600-1800 ppm og nivået kan fluktuere med opptil 200 ppm på bare 4 dager.»
Når man observerer slike forhold i dag ser man problemene med IPCC-leirens bruk av CO2-estimater fra bl.a Vostok. Massmann og Frank støtter dermed Jaworowski, Segalstad, Ono (1992) på at iskjerneprøvene ikke kunne benyttes til å bestemme tidligere tiders CO2-nivå.
Moderne studier
Forskerne har sett på to moderne datasett for temperatur, UAH data for lavere troposfære, og CRUTEM som er landtemperatur, et felles prosjekt fra Met Office Hadley Centre og Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ved University of East Anglia.
Forskjellig trend i de to kurvene er ansett som irrelevant siden det er årsak og virkning man undersøker. Det er velkjent i klimaforskningen at global oppvarming er mye sterkere over land enn over hav og at bakkemålt temperatur er forurenset av et stigende antall termometre i urbane strøk, samt en sterkt varierende gjennomsnitts-avstand fra ekvator.
Det er i figuren under brukt fire datasett for atmosfærisk CO2, Mauna Loa, Barrow i Alaska, Sydpolen og et globalt gjennomsnitt. Som man ser i figuren er forskjellen gjennom året størst der det regionalt er mest fotosyntese.
Studien påpeker klart at man her (figuren under) ikke ser noen årsakssammenheng mellom CO2 og temperatur, fordi temperaturen går kaotisk opp og ned, mens CO2 viser en stabil årsvariasjon og en jevnt stigende kurve.
Kan man med statsitisk analyse vise at det er en årsakssammenheng den andre veien, fra T til CO2? Det kan man.
For de som interesserer seg for detaljene i studiens metodikk og detaljene i den statistiske analyse viser vi til selve studien. Tabell 1 fra studien er gjengitt her, den viser antall måneder før CO2-nivået reagerer på endret temperatur. Studien bruker et signifikansnivå på 1 %.
Konklusjon: T = årsak, CO2 = virkning
Resultatet av studien støtter hypotesen at begge kausalitetsretninger eksisterer, med T som årsak og CO2 som virkning klart dominerende, til tross for at motsatt retning hersker i media og i politikken, samt i IPCC-leiren. Studiens resultater viser at endring i CO2 følger etter endring i temperatur med ca 6 mnd på en månedsskala, eller ca ett år på en årsskala.
Studien viser også til at naturens biokjemiske utslipp av CO2 fra jordmonnet kan øke med høyere temperatur og at dette reiser flere interessante spørsmål. I siste setning påpeker forfatterne i et neppe utilsiktet spark til IPCC-leiren, at forskere i det 21. århundre burde være klar over at komplekse systemer motsetter seg forenklede forklaringer.
Redaksjonen påpeker at denne studien dermed kommer til samme konklusjon som Humlum, Stordahl og Solheim, som i 2013 publiserte en analyse av en noe kortere tidsserie (1980-2012).
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### 貓飼料選擇指南：如何挑選最適合您愛貓的飼料？
貓咪是許多家庭的可愛成員，選擇適合的貓飼料不僅能確保牠們健康，還能讓牠們保持快樂。市面上的貓飼料種類繁多，如何找到最適合您愛貓的選擇呢？本文將為您提供一些實用的建議。
#### 貓飼料的基本類型
1. **乾飼料（乾糧）**
– 優點：方便存放、價格相對實惠，有助於清潔貓咪牙齒。
– 缺點：水分含量低，貓咪需要額外補充水分。
2. **濕飼料（罐頭或袋裝）**
– 優點：水分含量高，適合需要額外補水的貓咪，口感較佳。
– 缺點：開封後需冷藏，保存期限較短。
3. **冷凍乾燥飼料**
– 優點：保留了食材的營養，方便攜帶且保存期長。
– 缺點：價格較高，需用水泡發後餵食。
4. **生鮮飼料**
– 優點：最接近貓咪天然飲食習慣，營養豐富。
– 缺點：需嚴格控溫保存，製作麻煩。
#### 挑選貓飼料的關鍵因素
1. **年齡和生命階段**
– 幼貓、成貓、老年貓的營養需求不同。選擇標示適合該階段的飼料。
2. **健康狀況**
– 若貓咪有特殊健康問題（如腎臟病、肥胖或過敏），應選擇專門配方的醫療飼料。
3. **成分與營養標示**
– 優質貓飼料的第一項成分應為肉類或魚類，避免含過多填充劑（如玉米、小麥）。
4. **貓咪的口味偏好**
– 每隻貓咪的口味都不同，可能需要嘗試多種品牌來找到最受牠們喜愛的選擇。
5. **品牌信譽與評價**
– 選擇有良好口碑和高評價的品牌，並注意是否有第三方檢測認證。
#### 如何逐步更換貓飼料？
如果需要更換貓咪的飼料，請遵循以下步驟以避免腸胃不適：
1. 第1-3天：新飼料混入原飼料的25%。
2. 第4-6天：新飼料比例提升至50%。
3. 第7-9天：新飼料比例提升至75%。
4. 第10天以後：完全更換為新飼料。
#### 常見問題解答
1. **我的貓咪不喝水，怎麼辦？**
– 可以選擇濕飼料，或在乾飼料上噴一些水。
2. **如何分辨貓飼料是否過期？**
– 注意包裝上的有效日期，並確保飼料沒有異味或變色。
3. **可以給貓咪吃人類食物嗎？**
– 一些人類食物對貓咪有害，如巧克力、洋蔥、大蒜，應避免餵食。
#### 總結
選擇適合的貓飼料需要考量多種因素，包括貓咪的年齡、健康狀況和口味偏好。為了確保愛貓健康，建議定期諮詢獸醫，並為牠們提供均衡的飲食。讓您的貓咪擁有健康快樂的每一天！
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ST666-Nhà Cái Cá Cược Trực Tuyến Hàng Đầu Năm 2023
ST666 hiện đang được đánh giá là một trong những nhà cái trực tuyến uy tín và đẳng cấp nhất tại Châu Á. Với giấy phép hoạt động được cấp bởi tổ chức PAGCOR và First Cagayan, ST666 mang đến cho người chơi những trải nghiệm cá cược chuyên nghiệp, minh bạch và công bằng.
Tại sao nên chọn ST666?
1. Uy tín vượt trội
ST666 đã xây dựng được sự tín nhiệm từ cộng đồng người chơi nhờ hệ thống bảo mật cao cấp và các giao dịch tài chính minh bạch. Đội ngũ quản lý có kinh nghiệm dày dặn đảm bảo mọi hoạt động luôn diễn ra trơn tru và đáng tin cậy.
2. Sự đa dạng trong sản phẩm
ST666 cung cấp nhiều loại hình cá cược hấp dẫn như:
Cá cược thể thao với tỷ lệ kèo cạnh tranh.
Casino trực tuyến với các trò chơi phổ biến như Baccarat, Blackjack, và Roulette.
Slot game với hàng trăm tựa game độc đáo và đổi thưởng cao.
Bắn cá đổi thưởng và các trò chơi giải trí khác.
3. Giao dịch nhanh chóng, tiện lợi
Hệ thống giao dịch tại ST666 hỗ trợ nhiều phương thức nạp và rút tiền nhanh chóng:
Chuyển khoản ngân hàng.
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4. Khuyến mãi hấp dẫn
ST666 thường xuyên tổ chức các chương trình khuyến mãi độc quyền, bao gồm:
Thưởng 200% cho nạp tiền lần đầu.
Hoàn trả tiền cược mỗi ngày.
Ưu đãi đặc biệt cho thành viên VIP.
Hướng dẫn tham gia ST666
1. Đăng ký tài khoản
Người chơi cần cung cấp thông tin cơ bản để tạo tài khoản và bắt đầu hành trình trải nghiệm tại ST666.
2. Nạp tiền nhanh chóng
ST666 hỗ trợ nhiều phương thức nạp tiền an toàn, mang lại sự tiện lợi tối đa cho người chơi.
3. Sử dụng ứng dụng ST666
Ứng dụng của ST666 được tối ưu hóa để sử dụng trên cả hai nền tảng iOS và Android, giúp người chơi có thể truy cập và tham gia mọi lúc, mọi nơi.
4. Chương trình đại lý
Để kiếm thêm thu nhập, người chơi có thể đăng ký tham gia làm đại lý của ST666 và nhận hoa hồng cao từ doanh thu.
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Kết luận
ST666 là nhà cái cá cược trực tuyến hàng đầu với hệ thống hiện đại, dịch vụ chuyên nghiệp và nhiều chương trình khuyến mãi hấp dẫn. Đây chính là lựa chọn lý tưởng cho những ai đam mê cá cược và muốn trải nghiệm giải trí trực tuyến đẳng cấp. Tham gia ngay hôm nay để chinh phục những cơ hội lớn cùng ST666!
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台中外送茶：安全快速的外約服務指南
引言
台中外送茶是一項方便且受歡迎的服務，無論是夜晚的放鬆需求還是特殊場合的社交活動，都能提供快速、安全且專業的體驗。本文將深入探討台中外送茶的選擇、流程以及相關注意事項，幫助您在選擇服務時更加安心與滿意。
什麼是台中外送茶？
台中外送茶服務主要提供以下特點：
快速應對：透過線上或電話聯繫，立即安排外送服務。
多元選擇：服務涵蓋不同需求，從高端到實惠方案應有盡有。
隱私保障：強調保密性，確保客戶資料不被外洩。
台中外送茶適合哪些人？
商務旅客：在台中短期停留，追求品質與方便的伴侶服務。
壓力族群：希望藉由互動放鬆身心，增添生活樂趣。
聚會需求：特殊場合、生日或朋友聚會需要專業的伴侶服務。
選擇台中外送茶的注意事項
如何選擇安全的服務？
查詢評價：選擇高評價且有口碑的服務提供者。
確認價格透明：避免隱藏費用，提前溝通價格範圍。
合法經營：確認服務平台是否具備合法經營的資格。
常見的服務流程
聯繫服務商家，了解可提供的選項及價格。
確定時間與地點，確保雙方需求達成一致。
接收外送服務，享受專業的伴侶陪伴。
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