by https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00081-4/fulltext
Nesten hvert tiende dødsfall i verden skyldes ekstreme temperaturer. ABC/ Nyheter
Mer enn fem millioner mennesker dør i verden hvert år på grunn av temperaturer utenom det normale, ifølge en studie ledet av australske Monash University.
4.545.000 dødsfall kan knyttes til kulde utenom det normale, mens 489.000 er heterelatert.
Den globale studien er den første i sitt slag og ble nylig publisert i det medisinske tidsskriftet The Lancet og omtalt blant annet i Medical Express.
Forskere fra 43 land, blant dem Sverige, har samlet tall og data fra dødsregistre og sammenholdt dem med temperaturmålinger på mer enn 750 steder over hele kloden i perioden 2000 til 2019. Norske data er med i materialet.
Forskerne konkluderer med at nesten hvert tiende dødsfall i verden inntreffer for tidlig på grunn av sterk hete eller kulde utenom det normale.
Regionalt var det noen variasjoner, med en nedgang i temperaturtilknyttede dødsfall totalt i Sørøst-Asia og en oppgang totalt i Sør-Asia og Europa. I vår del av verden, Nord-Europa, var det registrert nesten 86.000 dødsfall på grunn av ekstremtemperaturer årlig. Av disse var drøyt 71.000 knyttet til kulde, og over 14.000 var knyttet til heteperioder. Det tilsvarer 9,4 prosent av de årlige dødsfallene i Nord-Europa.
For varmerelaterte dødsfall er tendensen økende, mens andelen kulderelaterte dødsfall går nedover. Det er imidlertid fremdeles langt flere som fryser i hjel enn det er som dør av overoppheting og dehydrering.
Fra perioden 2000–2003 til perioden 2016–2019 sank prosentandelen som døde av ekstrem kulde, med et halvt prosentpoeng og utgjorde totalt 8,5 prosent av alle dødsfall på jorda. I samme periode økte andelen som døde av hete 0,21 prosentpoeng og utgjorde 0,91 prosent av jordas dødsfall. I samme periode økte gjennomsnittstemperaturen på jorda med 0,26 grader Celsius per tiår.
Overalt
Studien viser videre at heterelaterte dødsfall økte i alle verdens regioner fra 2000 til 2019, noe som tyder på at global oppvarming på grunn av klimaendringer kan komme til å forverre dette tallet i framtiden.
Professor Yuming Guo ved fakultet for offentlig helse og forebyggende medisin ved Monash University i Melbourne sier dette indikerer at global oppvarming kanskje kan komme til å redusere antallet temperaturrelaterte dødsfall.
– Mest på grunn av nedgangen i kulderelatert dødelighet. Men på lang sikt vil imidlertid klimaendringene kunne ventes å øke dødeligheten, fordi vi må kunne vente en fortsatt økning i antall hetetilknyttede dødsfall.
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