by 2019 uten ekstremvær i Norge – nedadgående tendens
Klimanytt nr 269. Redaktør: Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Forfattet av Kjell Stordahl, medlem av Klimarealistenes vitenskapelige råd.
Etter den ekstreme orkanen Nyttårsaften 1991, også kalt Nyttårsorkanen, ble Meteorologisk institutt pålagt å innføre varsling av ekstreme værsituasjoner (ekstremvær) som utgjorde en fare for liv og verdier dersom det ikke igangsettes skadeforebyggende tiltak.
Fra 1994 ble det etablert et system der Meteorologisk institutt utarbeidet ekstremværvarsler generert av:
- Sterk vind, som regel storm.
- Store nedbørmengder eller endrede temperaturforhold som kan føre til stor flom.
- Ekstremt stor snøskredfare over store områder
- Stormflo (ekstremt høy vannstand langs deler av kysten)
Ekstremværstatistikk
Meteorologisk institutt har ved hvert varsel navngitt de aktuelle ekstremværene. Statistikken for de 26 årene med ekstremværvarsler, 1994 – 2019 finnes her.
Det sees ved den røde linjen i figuren basert på en regresjonsmodell, at antall ekstremværhendelser i perioden 1994 – 2019 (blå søyler) har gått ned. I 2018 var det 2 ekstremvær, Cora og Knud, mens det sist år i 2019 ikke var registrert noen ekstremvær da Meteorologisk institutt ikke gikk ut med noen ekstremværvarsler i det hele tatt.
Gjennomsnittlig antall meldte ekstremværvarsler i perioden 1994 – 2019 var 3,0. I 2009 og 2019 ble det ikke registrert noe ekstremvær.
Den 14.januar 2020 meldte Meteorologisk institutt ekstremværvarslet, Didrik, for Vestlandet som var en varslet stormflo. Det var basert på et prognostisert lavtrykk kombinert med høyt tidevann. Imidlertid avtok lavtrykket mer enn prognostisert slik at skadene ikke ble så store som fryktet.
Dødsraten forårsaket av store ekstremvær er betydelig avtagende
Langvarig og kraftig regn 21.-24. juli 1789 førte til Storofsen, Norges mest dødbringende flommer i historisk tid. Den tok livet av minst 61 mennesker i Gudbrandsdalen, Østerdalen og Valdres. Orkanen, Galnemåndag, rammet Vestlandet 12. mars 1822. Den krevde minst 170 menneskeliv, kanskje over 300. Etter krigen er det 37 personer som har omkommet av store snø-, leire- og fjellskred, mens det i løpet av de siste 50 årene var 16 som omkom i Vassdalen snøskredet i 1986. Så dødsraten forårsaket av store ekstremvær i Norge er betydelig nedadgående.
Antall ekstemværvarsler avtar med økende CO2 konsentrasjon
Figuren viser at CO2 konsentrasjonen i atmosfæren har økt fra 360 ppm til 411 ppm i perioden 1994 – 2019, mens antall ekstremværvarsler er avtagende.
Det kan være grunn til å nyansere ordbruken om ekstremvær og ekstremt vær. Når Meteorologisk institutt sender ut varsel om ekstremvær, er det alvorlig med fare for liv og samfunnsmessige verdier og basert på klare kriterier. Imidlertid, når journalister og andre ofte uttaler seg om ekstremvær er det etter egen vurdering – altså en klar utvanning av begrepet ekstremvær.
IPCC-dementi om stormer
Alarmerende påstander om ekstremvær har vært vanlig siden IPCCs første rapport i 1990. Men det er i det siste tiår kommet en rekke dementier. I 2007-rapporten skrev de at det ikke var økende tendens til stormer i Nord-Atlanteren, 2012-rapporten om at ekstremvær ville bli dominert av naturlige variasjoner de neste 20-30 år. I 2013-rapporten konkluderte de at det ikke var økte tendenser til flom. Tørke, tropiske sykloner og Golfstrømmen skulle ikke stoppe opp.
Dette er i tråd med etablert kunnskap innen meteorologien om at når temperaturene utjevnes blir trykkforskjellene som er hoveddrivkraften i stormer, mindre og vindstyrken avtar. I Norge har det i tråd med dette vært kjente begreper som høst- og vinterstormer, men lite om vår- og sommer. Det var nesten 12 års ‘tørke’ av orkaner som når land i USA med en styrke høyere enn kategori 3 før 2017.
Konklusjon
Mens mediene til stadighet overøser oss med ekstremværsbegivenheter og at dette skyldes økt drivhuseffekt, viser offentlig statistikk med tilhørende kriterier at ekstremeffektene avtar. Dette inntrer mens atmosfærens CO2 innhold øker relativt markant.
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