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https://www.klimarealistene.com/2021/12/31/det-glade-nyttarsbudskap-om-klimaeffekter/
Det glade nyttårsbudskap om klimaeffekter
- Kategorier: Arktis, Klimadebatt
Klimanytt nr. 312. Redaktør: Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Forfattet av Ole Henrik Ellestad.
Tapte menneskeliv fra naturkatastrofer er de siste 120 år redusert med over 90 %. Påstander om økning i ekstremeffekter har ingen dekning i offentlige statistikker. Klimaendringene og økt CO2 har bidratt positivt til rekordavlinger. Det er statistikkenes glade nyttårsbudskap supplert med at det er god balanse mellom inn- og utstråling på kloden. Da er det ikke krise, men bedre tider.
I Klimanytt 311 omtalte vi at satellittmålinger viste god balanse mellom inn- og utstråling fra kloden. Solinnstrålingen hadde økt (mindre skyer) og bidratt til litt oppvarming de senere år, men utstrålingen hadde økt omtrent tilsvarende til tross for stadig mer CO2. Det viser liten økt drivhuseffekt fra CO2. «The proof of the pudding is in the eating» er et engelsk uttrykk som understreker at det er selve opplevelsen av smaken (observasjoner) og ikke skryt, modeller og forhåndsomtale som gjelder.
Medienes overdrivelser
Offentlige registreringer viser at det er ingen økte langtidstendenser til ekstremvær bl.a. i Norge (KN 293, KN 269). Mediene velger notorisk ut negative værepisoder rundt om på kloden og fremstiller det som forårsaket av klimaendringer. Da har man alltid noe å skrive om i så vel kalde som varme tider, Et annet triks er manipulerte utsnitt av kurver som varierer opp og ned over tid. Stigningsdelen vises, men ikke perioder med nedgang eller helheten. Rapporter utarbeidet for det viktige toppmøtet i Arktisk Råd var manipulert slik Værstat.no korrekt omtalte saken (KN 301). De fleste skremselsomtaler beror på valg av tidspunkt for start og slutt. Men det er helheten over tid som teller.
Blant de kjente, men tilbakeviste skremselsutsagnene er «snow is something of the past» til tross for at snømengden på nordlige halvkule holder seg bra og til dels har økt i mange av de siste 60 årene. Kilimanjaro skulle miste snødekke (se nedenfor) og isbjørnen skulle forsvinne selv om bestanden har økt fra ca. 5000 tidlig i 1960-årene til rundt 30 000 dyr. Norge er en liten del av et begrenset område (12 %) med økt nedbør siste 100 år, men det er ikke større økning enn at man i år har kraftkrise som skal skyldes manglende nedbør (?)
En omtale skrevet av journalist Joakim Lund i Aftenposten den 28.12, kan stå som eksempel. En sammensausing av de fleste værfenomener gjennom en vekstsesong som kan reduserer vinproduksjon i ulike områder: varme, kulde og frost, regn, hagl, flom, tørke, muggsopp, orkaner og branner, alt er blitt voldsommere, kun ifølge Lund. Til og med frosten tidlig våren-21 skal visstnok skyldes varme. Her gjelder det å ramse opp mest mulig vær uten kjennskap til helheten. For den økte vinproduksjon mye lenger nord i den varme Middelalder, f.eks. York i UK (Lamb 1959), var visst varme bra, hvilket det fremdeles er.
Feilaktige og alarmerende spådommer
Bjørn Lomborg har påpekt at det er ingen markerte tendenser til økte ekstremeffekter (KN 310). Tapte menneskeliv fra klimakatastrofer er nå redusert med godt over 90 % siden år 1900. Omtrent dobbelt så mange dør av kulde som hete. Også eksperten Roger Pielke jr. har vitnet om manglende økninger med referanse til IPCC-rapporten 2013/14 og senere data. Det var ingen tendenser til økt ekstremvær ifølge offentlige databaser. Og senere tiders tornadoskremsler er ikke knyttet til varmere tider.
Det er en statistisk umulighet å endre konklusjonene fra IPCC 2013/14-rapportene basert på noen få enkelthendelser (som ikke er unormale) i løpet av noen få år.
Et typisk eksempel er omtale av orkaner i USA som slett ikke viser sammenheng med høyere temperaturer. Klodens mange temperaturtopper siste 40 år faller sammen med det varme værfenomenet El Niño (KN 120) i det ekvatoriale Stillehav. Statistisk er det bare én sterk orkan (kategori 3,4,5) som da når land i USA. Årsaken er at de øvre troposfæriske luftlag da er ugunstig for orkanutvikling. Under den kalde La Niña fasen er det 2,2 orkaner som når land. (B. Voituriez og G. Jacques, 2000. El Niño – Facts and Ficton).
Mellom 2005 og 2017 var det ingen av de nevnte type orkaner til tross for jevn økning av CO2. Hvordan kan en 12 års pause med sterke orkaner plutselig bli økt tendens? Det er åpenbart andre forhold som også stimulerer orkandannelse. Enda mer paradoksalt er det at El Niño ikke reflekterer økt energi på kloden, bare en redistribusjon av varme på overflaten, mellom hav og atmosfære.
Al Gore gjorde i sin Hollywoodfilm «An Inconvenient Truth» (juni 2006) et stort nummer av at snøen på Kilimanjaro skulle forsvinne innen tiåret. 15 år etter er det, som fotoet og lenken her viser, stort snøfall på toppen. Dette er ikke uvanlig. Det har vært snø der i alle disse årene, og i 2018 var det rekordpreget økning i snødybden
Det er ventet snø siden toppen har temperaturer på rundt -10 C grunnet høyden. Årsaken til periodisk mindre snø har i hovedsak vært påvirkning av mikroklima fra vegetasjonsendringer i området.
Ifølge Al Gore skulle sommerisen i Arktis forsvinne etter 2013. Men etter 2010 er det i snitt ingen minkning, heller en svak tendens til økte ismengder de senere år (knfr. Grønland). Det virker som om den dokumenterte ca. 60 års, naturlige syklusen stemmer godt med det velkjente variasjonsmønsteret som bl.a. medførte de varme årene rundt 1930 (KN 122, KN 128, KN 281, KN 301, og Solheim et al 2021, ). Da formidler media reduksjoner etter maksimum i 1980 da det var en topp, men utelater eldre data som viser lite is tidligere..
En nylig publikasjon bekrefter en rekke tidligere arbeider om oppvarmet hav lenge før CO2-utslipp kunne bidra. Dette er et arbeid som ikke blir omtalt i mediene. For mer omfattende gjennomgang (D’Aleo og Easterbrook) som viser sykluser de siste 150 år se her.
Hans Rosling og fakta
Hans Rosling spør i sin bok «Factfulness» hvordan selv ‘flinke’ folk kan ha en fullstendig feil oppfatning av viktige forhold i verden? En av årsakene er at de danner seg et inntrykk, ofte fra mediene, uten å sjekke fakta med kildene. Slik er det også med klima. Man sjekker ikke med de offisielle statistikker, men bygger på medienes egen oppfatning og omtale av IPCCs «Summary for Policymakers» som igjen er en dårlig oppsummering av fagrapportenes konklusjoner. Når mediene også lar være å omtale viktige publikasjoner, fokuserer på spesiallagde rapporter og nekter seriøs adgang til kritikk, stimuleres overdrivelsene. Det nærmer seg hundre alarmerende, tidligere spådommer som ikke har funnet sted (omtales i senere KN).
Konklusjon
Offentlige statistikker viser ingen økte tendenser til ekstremvær, men derimot en rekke forbedringer, en grønnere klode og økte avlinger. Gled dere over det mens det ennå er tid. For det kan fort bli kaldere og dårligere tider enn det mange ønsker, slik solforskere har forutsagt og som periodiske endringer i hav- og luftstrømmer viser.
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